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Cagliari vs Frosinone

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Free todayFinished
Cagliari
1:0Sat, Nov 07 22:00Unipol Domus
Frosinone
FreeVersion 6 · Lineup update · Nov 07, 2026, 21:44Final version · official line-ups includedData completeness 90%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 5 analysts

No recommended side for this match: none of the markets is clear enough, so we suggest sitting it out.

Why a pass

  • Asian handicap: Chief's probability too close to the market
  • Over / under: Chief's probability too close to the market

Watch out for

  • Frosinone's away sample contains only 4 matches, making the defensive estimate unstable, while their 2.75 expected goals conceded per game places a clear constraint on the away direction.
  • Both teams have conceded fewer actual goals than expected goals at the corresponding venues, creating a risk that defensive results regress toward opportunity quality for the under assessment.
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Market verdicts

  • Asian handicapFrosinone -0.2552%PassLoss
  • Over / underUnder 3.2552%PassWin
  • Correct score1-29%Miss
  • Total goals2–3 goals19%Miss

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Asian handicapFrosinone 0LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · withdrawn or switched Nov 07, 2026, 13:33
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap still leans toward Frosinone giving 0.25 goals. Cagliari's home attacking output has been limited, while Frosinone retain their main central attacking options. The over/under has shifted toward the under because the official squad list confirms Raimondo's absence, although defensive opportunity data for both teams limits the scope of that adjustment.

Weighting notes · Starting from the current market prices, the blended model is counted only once; the market and model are not treated as independent evidence to be added together. The data analyst's attacking comparison has reference value, but Frosinone's home wins cannot be directly extrapolated to away matches. The tactical view lacks specific matchup support and therefore receives a lower weight. The official squad list takes priority over predicted lineups and conflicting injury news, and no absence is interpreted as deliberate rotation based on a motivation profile. The Asian handicap direction and strength recommendation remain unchanged from the previous version. The over/under has been changed to the under after reweighting because Frosinone's official squad list confirms Raimondo's absence, Cagliari's squad list confirms a defensive reduction, and the implied probability associated with the current over price has risen. The objections concerning Frosinone's away defending and the chronology of market moves are accepted. The final price snapshot predates the current lineup collection, so it can only be said that it is not possible to verify whether the prices had incorporated the squad news; the actual publication time cannot be inferred. The data collection itself is not treated as a reason for changing the assessment.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Frosinone -0.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt融合后客队概率为53%，市场隐含为51%；模型已融合市场，该项只计入一次。Frosinone · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、射正6.6次；卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、预期进球0.9，进攻产出对比支持客队。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • +1.5 ptG. Calò、G. Kvernadze、R. Schmid、F. Ghedjemis均进入客队官方首发，不能把前锋缺席等同于客队整体进攻失去支撑。Frosinone · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.0 pt卡利亚里官方名单未列A. Obert，主队后防人员不完整，抵消部分客队锋线减员的影响。Frosinone · Lineups · Verified
  • -3.0 pt弗罗西诺内官方名单未列A. Raimondo，D. Bîrligea进入首发，客队锋线人员变化支持主队。Cagliari · Lineups · Verified
  • -2.0 pt弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均失球2、预期失球2.75，客场防守削弱客队方向。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，场均失球1.4低于预期失球2.16，不完整外推其实际攻防效率。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • —当前为主队受让平半（+0.25），客队让平半；去水隐含主队49%、客队51%，报价仅作为概率起点。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified

Over / under · Under 3.25 · Pass

  • +4.0 pt客队官方名单未列A. Raimondo，D. Bîrligea首发；锋线人员变化使历史进攻产出的适用性下降。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • +2.5 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、预期进球0.9，主队较低的进攻产出支持小球。Under · Match data · Verified
  • +0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不假定其实际终结效率完整延续。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均预期失球1.76，弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均预期失球2.75，双方防守允许的机会支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，近期进攻有机会创造支撑，不能仅按终结偶然性处理。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt主队官方名单未列A. Obert，后防人员损失对小球构成反向影响。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • -0.5 ptG. Calò、G. Kvernadze、R. Schmid、F. Ghedjemis均进入客队官方首发，限制对客队进攻的下调幅度。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • —当前3.25线上，融合后大球概率51%、小球49%，与市场整数百分比口径相近；模型不提供额外方向修正。Neutral · Quant model · Verified

Red team · 9 challenges

There are three strongest objections. The data analyst treats Frosinone's three home wins as away evidence and assigns them 58% on the away side giving 0.25 goals, above the de-vigged implied probability of 51%. The same analyst assigns 58% to the under despite citing Frosinone's 5-1, 4-4 and 4-2 results as contrary evidence. The market analyst interprets the mechanical repricing associated with the handicap change as money flow and says the over price was reduced after the lineup announcement, but the final price point predates the lineup data by about five minutes. The tactical analyst says it does not form an Asian handicap direction while still assigning the home side 56%, creating an internal inconsistency.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Asian handicap · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

在客队让平半（主队受让 +0.25）的盘口上给客队一侧 58%，高于当前去水隐含的客队 51%。

这份判断把弗罗西诺内近期的三场胜利都当成了客场依据，但 2-0 都灵、5-1 莱切、4-2 萨索洛三场都是主场作战。该队本赛季 4 个客场为 3-0 胜佛罗伦萨、1-1 平热那亚、4-4 平亚特兰大、0-3 负那不勒斯，客场场均失球 2、场均预期失球 2.75、场均预期进球 1.5，客场并不是同一支球队。客队让平半只有取胜才全赢，打平只退回一半，而卡利亚里近 5 个主场有 2 场取胜、主场场均失球 1。分析师自己的反向证据也写明客场样本只有 4 场、客场防守与平局风险削弱客队让平半的吸引力，这些没有体现在 58% 里。

Reverse scenario · 弗罗西诺内客场延续失球偏多的问题，未能取胜，主队受让平半一侧全赢或赢半。 · Reverse scenario probability 47%

8 more challenges (Over / under · Over / under · Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Asian handicap)

Detailed verdict for each market

Loss

Asian handicap

Frosinone -0.25

Pass

Frosinone

52%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Flip condition

If an official squad correction shows that one of the away side's principal attacking organizers cannot play, or reliable evidence on a replacement indicates that the loss from the forward line exceeds the effect of the home side's defensive reduction, the assessment changes to the home side or pass.

Edge+0.6 pt
Win

Over / under

Under 3.25

Pass

Under

52%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Flip condition

If the official squad list is corrected to show that A. Raimondo can play, or reliable evidence on a replacement indicates that the away side's attacking output has not declined because of his absence, the assessment changes to the over or pass.

Edge+2.9 pt
Miss

Correct score

Probability

If Frosinone -0.25 and Under 3.25 come in (full or half win; 24.9% in total), the most likely is 1-2 (9%)

  • 1-29%
  • 0-16%
  • 0-26%
Most likely · 1-2
Miss

Total goals

Probability

If Frosinone -0.25 and Under 3.25 come in (full or half win; 24.9% in total), the most likely is 2–3 goals (18.6%)

  • 0–1 goals6%
  • 2–3 goals19%
  • 4+ goals0%
Most likely · 2–3 goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Summary

Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals per game and recorded 0.9 expected goals over their last 5 home matches, while Frosinone have scored 2.4 goals and recorded 6.6 shots on target per game over their last 10 matches, leaning the Asian handicap toward the away side. The under is a cautious lean on a 3.25 total goals line, but Frosinone's 2.75 expected goals conceded away and their recent 4-4 and 5-1 results provide clear counterevidence.

  • Asian handicapLean · FrosinoneStrength 3/5Probability 58%
    • The home side is receiving 0.25 goals, so Frosinone need a win to support the handicap direction. Cagliari lost 1-2, 2-4, 0-2 and 0-4 to Lazio, Roma, Bologna and Monza respectively in their most recent meetings, with recent performance unfavorable to the home side receiving goals.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Frosinone won 2-0, 5-1 and 4-2 against Torino, Lecce and Sassuolo and drew 4-4 with Atalanta. Their 6.6 shots on target and 1.77 expected goals per game over the last 10 matches support the away side's ability to seek a win.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals per game with 0.9 expected goals and 1.76 expected goals conceded per game in their last 5 home matches. Their 1 shot on target and 0.52 expected goals in the recent 2-0 home loss to Bologna show that limited home attacking output is the main weakness in the receiving-goals direction.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 客队同场地样本只有4场，不能视为完整的近5个客场。 · 主队近5个主场包含上赛季比赛，样本连续性有限。 · 伤停、停赛与预计首发数据缺失。

  • Over / underLean · UnderStrength 2/5Probability 58%
    • The total goals line is 3.25. Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1 goal per game in their last 5 home matches, with 0.9 expected goals; the home side's low attacking output is the main basis for leaning toward the under.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Frosinone have averaged 1.5 expected goals per away match, below their 2.4 goals per game over the last 10 matches. Their 1.77 expected goals over the last 10 matches are also below their actual goals, so recent high-scoring results cannot be treated directly as a sustained attacking baseline.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari's recent home matches against Bologna and Juventus finished 0-2 and 1-1, with only 1 and 2 shots on target respectively. These matches provide practical references for games in which the home side's attacking limitations make it difficult to exceed 3.25 total goals.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 双方防守端实际失球低于预期失球，小球判断面临失球表现回归的风险。 · 主队与客队上半场进球占比分别为56%和58%，但更细的进球时段及领先后表现数据缺失。 · 射门后预期进球、门将扑救质量与明确机会转化率数据缺失。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-1Strength 1/5
    • Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals per game with 0.9 expected goals in their last 5 home matches, while Frosinone have averaged 1.5 expected goals away. A low-scoring draw can be a cautious single-score selection.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari's 1-1 home match against Juventus and Frosinone's 1-1 away match against Genoa show that both teams have recorded this score at the corresponding venues in the supplied sample, but this is insufficient to establish a stable exact-score distribution.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 精确比分分布数据缺失，单一比分判断强度较低。 · 双方交锋记录数据缺失。 · 单一比分的分布中心不等同于让球或大小球方向。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals per game with 0.9 expected goals at home, while Frosinone have scored 2 goals per game with 1.5 expected goals away. The home side's low output and the away side's stronger attack coexist, making 2-3 total goals a cautious lean.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari's last 5 home matches include 0-2, 1-1 and 2-1, while Frosinone's away matches include 0-3, 1-1 and 3-0, providing actual supplied samples for the 2-3 goal range.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 进球档位概率分布数据缺失，只能给出低强度的单档判断。 · 客队近期高比分与主队主场低进球表现存在冲突。 · 进球档位选择不作为大小球方向的独立依据。

Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 21:44Current

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-3 → 1-2
    • Correct score: Probability 6% → 9%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 19%
  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 14:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 22%
  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:33View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line 0 → 0.25
    • Asian handicap: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Asian handicap: Probability 57% → 52%
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Total goals: Probability 20% → 21%
  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 04:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
    • Total goals: Probability 18% → 20%
  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Frosinone 0 Lean 56%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  4. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionKept · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  6. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 6 · Nov 07, 2026, 21:44 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  3. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal
  4. Reference opinionKept · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapFrosinone -0.25Loss
Over / underUnder 3.25Win
Correct score1-2Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Frosinone -0.25 → loss; over/under Under 3.25 → win; correct score 1-2 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 00:06

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