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Cagliari vs Frosinone

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Free todayFinished
Cagliari
1:0Sat, Nov 07 22:00Unipol Domus
Frosinone
FreeVersion 5 · Update (2h before) · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09Data completeness 78%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

No recommended side for this match, but 1 reference opinion: the chief and the model agree, on the favourite side, with a gap of at least 1 point, yet short of the recommendation bar. Not a pick; for reference only.

Why a pass

  • Asian handicap: Chief's probability too close to the market
  • Over / under: Chief's probability too close to the market

Watch out for

  • Official starting lineups for both teams are missing; the structured home suspension list and away injury list are both empty, and the multi-source news has not yet been checked against the final lineup.
  • Cagliari have produced only 0.9 expected goals per match in their last 5 home matches; if the home side struggle to contribute offensively, the support for the over will weaken materially.
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Market verdicts

  • Asian handicapFrosinone -0.2552%Pass
  • Over / underOver 3.2550%Pass
  • Correct score1-36%
  • Total goals4+ goals21%

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Asian handicapFrosinone 0LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · withdrawn or switched Nov 07, 2026, 13:33
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap retains the Frosinone away side based on attacking output and Cagliari’s low home creativity, although the effect of the away side’s defensive and striker absences has been reduced. The over/under retains the over direction because both teams’ defensive weaknesses create opportunities, while the home side’s low output and the away side’s personnel losses keep the assessment close to neutral.

Weighting notes · The change log records only the data refresh and does not identify any verifiable content changes, so the previous direction and recommendation limits for both markets are maintained; the refresh time is not treated as new evidence. The market is used as the probability starting point and the fusion model is counted only once. The statistical factors overlap with the model, so they are treated as limited supplements. Data Analyst and Quantitative Analyst weights are both 1, while Market Analyst is 0.9 and Intelligence Analyst is 0.85, but the views are not mechanically averaged. The Asian handicap accepts the opposing view concerning Frosinone’s away defense and striker absence and does not adopt the Data Analyst’s 58% for the away side. The over/under accounts for both the home side’s defensive loss and the away side’s attacking loss and does not double-count the over direction merely because the Market Analyst assigned it 51%. Multi-source news is used according to its verification level, but the reliability score of 0.4 limits the size of adjustments. Conflicting reports are not used as directional pillars. As both teams are early in the season, no adjustment is made for motivation based on league position.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Frosinone -0.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次；卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、预期进球0.9，进攻产出对比支持客队。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • +1.9 pt融合后客队概率为53%，市场去水隐含客队为51%；模型已经融合市场，只计入一次模型修正。Frosinone · Quant model · Verified
  • +1.0 ptAdam Obert停赛获2家出版方报道，核验为多来源；主队人员受损支持客队，但报道可靠性为0.4，仅作有限修正。Frosinone · News · Verified
  • +0.5 ptMattia Felici缺阵获4家出版方报道，核验为多来源；仅对主队人员可用性作轻量下调，不推断具体位置影响。Frosinone · News · Verified
  • -2.0 ptAntonio Raimondo缺阵获2家出版方报道，另有4家出版方报道客队仍缺少他与Florian Grillitsch；客队人员损失反向支持主队。Cagliari · News · Verified
  • -1.5 pt弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均失球2、预期失球2.75，客场防守给主队留下抗衡空间。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，场均失球1.4低于预期失球2.16，不完整外推其实际攻防效率。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • —双方均处于赛季初段，上一场距本场均为6天，不以排名或休息间隔增加任何一侧的概率。Neutral · Match data · Verified

Over / under · Over 3.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，机会创造支持大球，不将近期进球全部归为偶然转化。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +2.0 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均预期失球1.76，弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均预期失球2.75，双方防守允许的机会支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 ptAdam Obert停赛获2家出版方报道，核验为多来源；主队后防人员损失支持大球，但报道可靠性为0.4，仅作有限修正。Over · News · Verified
  • +0.3 pt当前3.25线融合后大球概率为49%，大球相对市场的整数百分点差为0；模型只提供接近中性的轻量修正。Over · Quant model · Verified
  • -2.0 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、失球1、预期进球0.9，主队主场较低的进攻产出支持小球。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 ptAntonio Raimondo缺阵获2家出版方报道，核验为多来源；客队前锋不可用的报道支持小球，与让球盘中下调客队进攻的处理一致。Under · News · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不能假设近期终结效率完整延续。Under · Match data · Verified
  • —当前大小球3.25，大球2.00、小球1.91，去水隐含大球49%、小球51%；报价仅作为起点，不把盘口维持高位单独当作大球加分。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified

Red team · 7 challenges

The most significant concern in the Asian handicap is that all three analysts point in the same direction: 58%, 54% and 53% for the away side all depend on the same market sequence, while the margin-adjusted implied probability is only 51% for the away side and the two bookmakers are almost identical. This agreement does not constitute independent confirmation. The away side’s absence of its main striker, two draws in four away matches and 2.75 away expected goals conceded all reduce the full-win path for Frosinone -0.25. In the over/under, the Data Analyst’s 58% under probability is higher than the market implied probability and the Quantitative Analyst’s 51%, while the three high-scoring matches he lists are precisely the type that would produce a full loss on the under. The Market Analyst’s 51% over probability contradicts the margin-adjusted 51% under probability cited in his own analysis and misreads the mechanical repricing after the line increase as a money signal. The Quantitative Analyst presents an away probability only 2 percentage points from the market at strength 3, while the band ranking contradicts his own neutral over/under assessment.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Asian handicap · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

让球盘：卡利亚里近期对拉齐奥、罗马、博洛尼亚、蒙扎分别以1-2、2-4、0-2、0-4告负，弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、场均射正6.6次，因此在主队受让平半（+0.25）这条线上给客队58%、强度3。

在同一份数据切片里，弗罗西诺内客场只有4场，成绩为1胜2平1负：4-4平亚特兰大、0-3负那不勒斯、1-1平热那亚、3-0胜佛罗伦萨；这4场客场场均进球2、场均失球2、场均预期失球2.75，其中两场平局按结算只算客队输一半。卡利亚里主场5场场均进球0.8、场均失球1，主场并不是一边倒。分析师把客队给到58%，而市场去水隐含客队只有51%，量化解读师融合后也只有53%，同时他自己列出的反证（客场样本仅4场、客场预期失球2.75）已经在削弱这个方向，强度与依据不匹配。他只用了比分，没有用自己切片里的盘路：卡利亚里近5场为1次走盘、1次赢盘、3次输盘，两场输盘都发生在平手盘；而两次受让一球的比赛（对尤文1-1赢盘、对拉齐奥1-2走盘）都没有输盘，与只受让平半的本场不可直接类比。

Reverse scenario · 卡利亚里主场率先取得领先，或把平局守到终场：按结算打平即主队赢一半、客队输一半，主队取胜则客队让平半全输。 · Reverse scenario probability 45%

6 more challenges (Over / under · Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Total goals)

Detailed verdict for each market

Asian handicap

Frosinone -0.25

Reference opinionPass

Frosinone

52%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +2.0 pt · 弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次；卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、预期进球0.9，进攻产出对比支持客队。
  • +1.9 pt · 融合后客队概率为53%，市场去水隐含客队为51%；模型已经融合市场，只计入一次模型修正。
  • +1.0 pt · Adam Obert停赛获2家出版方报道，核验为多来源；主队人员受损支持客队，但报道可靠性为0.4，仅作有限修正。
  • +0.5 pt · Mattia Felici缺阵获4家出版方报道，核验为多来源；仅对主队人员可用性作轻量下调，不推断具体位置影响。
  • -2.0 pt · Antonio Raimondo缺阵获2家出版方报道，另有4家出版方报道客队仍缺少他与Florian Grillitsch；客队人员损失反向支持主队。
  • -1.5 pt · 弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均失球2、预期失球2.75，客场防守给主队留下抗衡空间。
  • -0.5 pt · 弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，场均失球1.4低于预期失球2.16，不完整外推其实际攻防效率。
  • — · 双方均处于赛季初段，上一场距本场均为6天，不以排名或休息间隔增加任何一侧的概率。

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms Antonio Raimondo’s absence while Adam Obert can play, weakening the home side’s defensive-depletion evidence, the assessment changes to the home side or pass.

Edge+1.2 pt

Over / under

Over 3.25

Pass

Over

50%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms Antonio Raimondo’s absence while Adam Obert can play, so that the away side’s attacking loss remains but the home side’s defensive-depletion support disappears, the assessment changes to the under or pass.

Edge+1.2 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Frosinone -0.25 and Over 3.25 come in (full or half win; 21.4% in total), the most likely is 1-3 (5.7%)

  • 1-36%
  • 2-34%
  • 1-43%
Most likely · 1-3

Total goals

Probability

If Frosinone -0.25 and Over 3.25 come in (full or half win; 21.4% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (21.4%)

  • 0–1 goals0%
  • 2–3 goals0%
  • 4+ goals21%
Most likely · 4+ goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Summary

Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals and produced 0.9 expected goals per match in their last 5 home matches, while Frosinone have scored 2.4 goals and recorded 6.6 shots on target per match in their last 10 matches, leaning the Asian handicap toward the away side. The 3.25 total goals line is cautiously tilted toward the under, but Frosinone’s 2.75 away expected goals conceded and recent 4-4 and 5-1 results provide clear counterevidence.

  • Asian handicapLean · FrosinoneStrength 3/5Probability 58%
    • The home side receives 0.25, and the away side must win to support the handicap direction. Cagliari recently lost 1-2, 2-4, 0-2 and 0-4 to Lazio, Roma, Bologna and Monza respectively, and their recent performance does not favor the home +0.25 side.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Frosinone recently won 2-0, 5-1 and 4-2 against Torino, Lecce and Sassuolo and drew 4-4 with Atalanta; with 6.6 shots on target and 1.77 expected goals per match over their last 10 matches, their attacking output supports an away attempt to win.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals and produced 0.9 expected goals per match in their last 5 home matches, with 1.76 expected goals conceded per match; they recorded only 1 shot on target and 0.52 expected goals in their recent home match against Bologna, making insufficient home attacking output the main weakness of the home +0.25 side.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 客队同场地样本只有4场，不能视为完整的近5个客场。 · 主队近5个主场包含上赛季比赛，样本连续性有限。 · 伤停、停赛与预计首发数据缺失。

  • Over / underLean · UnderStrength 2/5Probability 58%
    • The total goals line is 3.25. Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1 goal per match in their last 5 home matches, with 0.9 expected goals for the home attack; the home side’s low attacking output is the primary support for the under.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Frosinone have produced 1.5 expected goals per away match, below their 2.4 goals per match in their last 10 matches; their 1.77 expected goals over the last 10 are also below their actual goals, so recent high-scoring results cannot be treated directly as a sustained attacking baseline.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari’s recent home matches against Bologna and Juventus finished 0-2 and 1-1, with only 1 and 2 shots on target respectively; these games provide practical references for totals being difficult to exceed 3.25 when the home attack is restricted.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 双方防守端实际失球低于预期失球，小球判断面临失球表现回归的风险。 · 主队与客队上半场进球占比分别为56%和58%，但更细的进球时段及领先后表现数据缺失。 · 射门后预期进球、门将扑救质量与明确机会转化率数据缺失。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-1Strength 1/5
    • Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals and produced 0.9 expected goals per match in their last 5 home matches; Frosinone have produced 1.5 expected goals per away match, making a low-scoring draw a cautious single-score selection.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari’s home match against Juventus and Frosinone’s away match against Genoa both produced 1-1, so the input sample contains records of that score at the respective venues, but this is insufficient to establish a stable exact-score distribution.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 精确比分分布数据缺失，单一比分判断强度较低。 · 双方交锋记录数据缺失。 · 单一比分的分布中心不等同于让球或大小球方向。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals and produced 0.9 expected goals per home match, while Frosinone have scored 2 goals and produced 1.5 expected goals per away match; low home output and stronger away attacking output coexist, cautiously favoring the 2-3 goal band.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01
    • Cagliari’s last 5 home matches include 0-2, 1-1 and 2-1, while Frosinone’s away matches include 0-3, 1-1 and 3-0, providing actual input samples for the 2-3 goal range at the respective venues.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 20:01

    Uncertainties · 进球档位概率分布数据缺失，只能给出低强度的单档判断。 · 客队近期高比分与主队主场低进球表现存在冲突。 · 进球档位选择不作为大小球方向的独立依据。

Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 21:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-3 → 1-2
    • Correct score: Probability 6% → 9%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 19%
  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:09Current

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 14:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 22%
  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:33View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line 0 → 0.25
    • Asian handicap: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Asian handicap: Probability 57% → 52%
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Total goals: Probability 20% → 21%
  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 04:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
    • Total goals: Probability 18% → 20%
  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Frosinone 0 Lean 56%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  4. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionKept · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  6. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 6 · Nov 07, 2026, 21:44 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  3. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal
  4. Reference opinionKept · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
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