About DeepBall

Three principles

Deterministic work stays in code: data, odds, quant probabilities, settlement and hit rates are computed, while LLMs only interpret, challenge, adjudicate and write.

Every conclusion is traceable: evidence carries a source and timestamp, the red team cannot be disabled, and chief adjustments are capped and logged.

The record is fully public, including misses and passes, settled on the last pre-kick-off version.

How to read a report

Start with the status line: how much of this analysis you can read right now — free today, purchased, included with membership, or preview only.

The core call: the direction and adjudicated probability from the chief, with the confidence stars, tier and edge beside it.

Why: the main evidence, the main risks, and the flip conditions that would change the call.

What the red team says: the challenges it raised, and how the challenged analyst answered.

Analysts and data: the calls on the remaining markets, each specialist’s own view, and the basic and advanced data panels.

Versions and review: every update leaves a version record; after the match the original call and its settlement are published.

Probability, edge and confidence

Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.

Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.

Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.

Confidence (1–5 stars): how sure the team is about the call, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.

The tier follows from edge and confidence together: an edge of 5 points or more with 4 stars or more is “strong”; 2 points or more with 3 stars or more is “lean”; everything else is “pass”. Without a market line the call is always a pass. Distribution calls such as scorelines and goal bands only carry a probability — no stars and no tier.

The chief may move the model probability by no more than ±5 points and the confidence by no more than ±1 star(s); the reason is written into the report.

Where the evidence comes from

Every piece of evidence carries its source and timestamp — match data, odds, intel or the quant model. The English site shows the translation and marks any block still in the report’s original language.

Odds come from a multi-book “market consensus”; no bookmaker name or link appears anywhere on the site. Sources we cannot identify are labelled “unidentified source” rather than passed off as verified fact.

When it updates

First version: generated automatically 24 hours before kick-off.

Regular updates: once 2 hours before kick-off and once after the starting line-ups are published.

Line-move reruns: a partial rerun when the football line moves by 0.25 or more, the basketball line by 1.5 or more, or the price by 0.1 or more; at least 30 minutes between reruns, and no line-move rerun within 30 minutes of kick-off.

Early analysis: members can request it for matches more than 24 hours from kick-off that have no report yet — 3 per day, resetting at midnight in the site time zone.

Versions and settlement: each update creates a new version and older ones stay available; updates stop at kick-off, and settlement uses the last pre-kick-off version, which then counts towards the public record.

How the record is calculated

Hit rate counts only lean / strong directional calls; a match’s handicap and total count as one call each; every call is settled on the last version before kick-off.

Hit rate = (hits + ½ × half wins) ÷ (hits + misses + ½ × half wins + ½ × half losses)

Brier, the reliability curve and average CLV cover every directional call, pass calls included but distribution calls excluded. Pass and distribution calls stay out of the hit rate but are listed one by one under Pro metrics & full history.

Prices and terms

1 free match per sport per day, fully readable; every other match is a preview.

A full match analysis costs 20 points, an article 10 and a video 15; unlocked content stays visible forever.

Unlocking a match analysis does not include that match’s article or video — the three are charged separately.

Full rules for points, membership and refunds are in the help centre; every settled call is listed in the platform record.

The analyst team

Seven roles work in a fixed order: five specialists analyse in parallel, the red-team review is mandatory, the chief rules and QA checks the result; every step cites its sources and timestamps.

Data analyst: Form, home and away splits, head-to-head, attacking and defensive efficiency, xG / net rating / pace.

Intelligence: Injuries, line-ups, rotation, schedule congestion, weather and pitch, motivation and sentiment.

Tactics: Playing styles, formation match-ups and key duels; for basketball, pace, three-point reliance and the interior battle.

Market: Line moves from opening to live, prices and market heat, model probability against implied probability.

Quant: Reads the quant model: probabilities, ranges and edge.

Red team: Argues against the others: overlooked variables, overconfidence and reverse scenarios; cannot be switched off.

Chief: Weighs every view and dispute and rules by weight and data completeness; every call is settled in public after the match.