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Cagliari vs Frosinone

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Free todayFinished
Cagliari
1:0Sat, Nov 07 22:00Unipol Domus
Frosinone
FreeVersion 1 · Initial (pre-match) · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11Data completeness 78%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

The Asian handicap shows a stronger preference for Frosinone, driven mainly by attacking performance rather than the disputed home-team suspension news. Frosinone has been better at both creating chances and converting them recently, but its away defensive record remains the main weakness to monitor in this assessment.

Asian handicap · Core direction

Frosinone 0

Verdict probability

56%

LeanEdge+3.2 ptλ-blended model probability 55%

Price at analysis 1.85 (unchanged since Nov 06, 2026, 17:26)

Line at analysis: Frosinone 0Closing main line: Frosinone -0.25 · price 1.88 (Nov 07, 2026, 21:56)The line has moved; this call only holds at Frosinone 0

Why

  1. Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals and 6.6 shots on target per match over the last 10 matches, compared with 0.9, 1.23 and 4 for Cagliari. The away side is not only scoring more; it is also creating more chances.
  2. Frosinone recently drew 4-4 away to Atalanta, then beat Lecce 5-1 and Torino 2-0. Its attacking output against different opponents supports the continued preference for the away side in this match.

Watch out for

  • Cagliari has averaged 1 goal conceded per match at home over its last 5 home matches, while Frosinone's last 4 away matches have featured 2.75 expected goals conceded per match. The away side's defensive record is not strong enough to dismiss Cagliari's counterattacking opportunities.
  • Frosinone's projected squad does not include A. Raimondo, who has scored 8 goals over the last 10 matches. The lineup has not been officially confirmed, and if he is absent, Frosinone's attacking advantage will need to be reassessed.
How do I read these numbers?
  • 56%: the chief’s final probability that Frosinone 0 lands, after weighing every analyst (the quant model gives the same side 55%, a gap of +0.7 pt; main factor: 融合后模型给出客队55%、主队45%；融合权重为0.1，模型结果与市场并非独立证据，只作有限调整。).
  • 53%: the market’s own view, converted from the consensus odds with the margin removed.
  • +3.2 pt: the verdict probability minus the market’s; a positive number means we rate this direction higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade 4 of 5 stars: computed by code from the evidence — one star each for a gap big enough for lean, a gap big enough for strong, agreeing with the model, a mostly verified factor ledger and complete data (at least one star). Not a hit rate: four stars does not mean four in five land.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Other market verdicts

  • Over / underOver 354%PassLine moved
  • Correct score1-35%
  • Total goals4+ goals18%

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Asian handicapFrosinone 0LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · withdrawn or switched Nov 07, 2026, 13:33
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap favors Frosinone, with the key support coming from its superior attacking chance creation and output over the last 10 matches, although defensive shortcomings away from home limit the scope of that judgment. The total goals line of 3 favors over, based on Frosinone's attack and the defensive pressure faced by both teams, while also accounting for the countervailing factor of Cagliari's low scoring output at home.

Weighting notes · The current market is the starting point, and the analysis incorporates the reference weight of 1 and a quantitative perspective. The fusion model already contains market information, so it is not treated as separate corroborating evidence. The Asian handicap retains the intel analyst's preference for Frosinone, but the suspension news is not used to raise the probability because conflicting reports exist; the main adjustment comes from recent attacking and defensive performance. The over/under analysis adopts the data analyst's over direction while fully accounting for the home team's low home scoring output emphasized by the opposing view, leaving it below the analyst's 56% over estimate. The opposing view's challenges concerning a single quoted price, small price changes and draw-price inferences are accepted, and no judgment is made from them regarding money flow or the expected openness of the match. Both teams are at an early stage of the season, so no motivation adjustment based on league position is applied.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Frosinone 0 · Lean

  • +2.0 pt融合后模型给出客队55%、主队45%；融合权重为0.1，模型结果与市场并非独立证据，只作有限调整。Frosinone · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次；卡利亚里分别为0.9、1.23和4次，客队进攻表现占优。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 pt弗罗西诺内近期先客场4-4战平亚特兰大，再以5-1击败莱切、2-0击败都灵，近期进攻产出支持客队；与整体进攻统计相关，只给有限增量。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均失球1；弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均失球2、预期失球2.75，客队客场防守给主队留下抗衡空间。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，场均失球1.4低于预期失球2.16，实际攻防结果均比机会质量更有利，不宜完全外推。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • —A. Obert停赛报道存在相反说法，只有1家出版方，不将这条消息作为提高客队概率的依据。Neutral · News · Unverified
  • —双方战意画像均为赛季初段，没有需求不对称，不因积分排名给客队增加战意修正。Neutral · Match data · Verified

Over / under · Over 3 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，进攻机会与实际产出共同支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +2.0 pt卡利亚里近10场场均预期失球1.85，弗罗西诺内为2.16；客队所提供的近4个客场场均预期失球2.75，双方防守允许的机会支持大球，而不只依赖近期高比分。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +0.5 pt总进球3盘口的融合后模型概率为大球52%、小球48%，大球区间为51%至54%；模型与市场接近，只给有限正向修正。Over · Quant model · Verified
  • -2.0 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、失球1、预期进球0.9，主队主场进攻产出与比赛失球结果对大球形成约束。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不能按实际进球水平完整外推，降低对近期进攻效率延续的依赖。Under · Match data · Verified
  • —A. Obert停赛报道存在相反说法，只有1家出版方，不预先按主队防线减员增加大球概率。Neutral · News · Unverified

Why Frosinone 0

Asian handicap · Reasons, risks and what would flip it

Key evidence 4

  1. The current line is 0 with neither team receiving a handicap, the home price is 2.07 and the away price is 1.85, and the implied probabilities after removing the margin are 47% for the home side and 53% for the away side. This is the starting point for the assessment, and the away side's lower price is not counted again as independent positive evidence.Market consensus · Nov 06, 2026, 17:26
  2. The fused model gives the away side a 55% probability, compared with 75% in the original model, using a fusion weight of 0.1. The fused assessment is used without adding the original model's large bias to the probability again.Quant model · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
  3. Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals and 6.6 shots on target per match over the last 10 matches, all above Cagliari's 0.9, 1.23 and 4. Recent attacking performance is the main reason for placing the away-side assessment above both the market and the fused model.Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
  4. The countervailing constraint comes from venue-specific performance: Cagliari has averaged 1 goal conceded per match in its last 5 home matches, while Frosinone's last 4 away matches have featured 2.75 expected goals conceded per match. The home side's ability to resist is therefore retained, and the attacking advantage is not treated as an across-the-board advantage.Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

Dissent 2

  • The opposing view still gives the away side 54%, but considers the fusion model highly dependent on the market and the away team's weighted sample to be only 8.7 matches. A home defender's suspension cannot support a larger adjustment toward the away side because conflicting reports exist.Red team · Strength 4/5
  • The data analyst remains neutral on the Asian handicap, emphasizing the defensive pressure Frosinone faces away from home and the gap between actual and expected goals, without directly converting its attacking data advantage into a clear direction.Data analyst · Strength 2/5

Main risks 3

  • Official starting lineups for both teams are missing. A. Raimondo is not included in the away team's projected squad, but a projected squad does not establish that he is absent.
  • Frosinone's 2.4 goals per match over the last 10 matches exceed its 1.77 expected goals. If recent finishing performance declines, the away-side advantage may narrow.
  • Only 4 away matches are available for Frosinone, while Cagliari's last 5 home matches include matches from the previous season, creating sample limitations in the venue comparison.

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms that Frosinone's main attacking players are absent while the main personnel in Cagliari's defense are available, the assessment changes to the home side or pass.

Red team · 7 challenges

The away-side Asian handicap preference deserves the greatest discount. The quantitative analyst's 55% and the intel analyst's 56% are both above the market's 53% implied probability after removing the margin. The former is based on a fusion weight of only 0.1 and an away-side weighted sample of just 8.7 matches, while the latter relies mainly on one defender suspension report that is contradicted by another report. Frosinone's projected lineup also omits a forward who has scored 8 goals. On the over/under, the data analyst's 56% over probability conflicts with the analyst's own evidence of low home scoring, and Frosinone's recent over results came at higher lines. The market analyst's use of the draw price to argue for an open match and a single quoted price to suggest protection against a stable result are both unsupported. The 2-3 goal and 4-or-more goal bands are almost level, making a strength-3 rating slightly high.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Quant · Asian handicap · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

让球盘选客队 55%、强度3，依据是融合后客队概率高于主队、相对市场有2个百分点优势。

这条客队55%的独立性很弱：融合权重只有0.1，最终预期进球几乎由市场主盘决定。混合后预期进球是主队1.53、客队1.72，市场反解是1.56和1.67，两者差别很小，所谓2个百分点优势基本是把市场定价再算了一遍。客队一侧时间衰减后的加权场次只有8.7场、真实赛果10场，主队是21.2场和48场；在这种明显不对称的样本上把客队概率抬到市场隐含的53%之上并给3级强度，依据偏薄。何况客队区间54%至57%的下沿只比市场隐含高1个百分点。

Reverse scenario · 客队未能在平手盘赢盘：打平走盘，或主队净胜1球及以上。 · Reverse scenario probability 47%

6 more challenges (Asian handicap · Over / under · Over / under · Asian handicap · Total goals · Asian handicap)

Detailed verdict for each market

Over / under

Over 3

Reference opinionPass

Over

54%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +2.0 pt · 弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，进攻机会与实际产出共同支持大球。
  • +2.0 pt · 卡利亚里近10场场均预期失球1.85，弗罗西诺内为2.16；客队所提供的近4个客场场均预期失球2.75，双方防守允许的机会支持大球，而不只依赖近期高比分。
  • +0.5 pt · 总进球3盘口的融合后模型概率为大球52%、小球48%，大球区间为51%至54%；模型与市场接近，只给有限正向修正。
  • -2.0 pt · 卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、失球1、预期进球0.9，主队主场进攻产出与比赛失球结果对大球形成约束。
  • -0.5 pt · 弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不能按实际进球水平完整外推，降低对近期进攻效率延续的依赖。
  • — · A. Obert停赛报道存在相反说法，只有1家出版方，不预先按主队防线减员增加大球概率。

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms that Frosinone's main attacking players are absent while the main personnel in Cagliari's defense are available, weakening both the away attacking case and the pressure on the home defense, the assessment changes to under or pass.

Edge+2.1 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Frosinone 0 and Over 3 come in (full or half win; 18% in total), the most likely is 1-3 (5%)

  • 1-35%
  • 2-34%
  • 1-42%
Most likely · 1-3

Total goals

Probability

If Frosinone 0 and Over 3 come in (full or half win; 18% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (18%)

  • 0–1 goals0%
  • 2–3 goals0%
  • 4+ goals18%
Most likely · 4+ goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Analyst consensus

4 analysts: 2 agree · 2 cautious · 0 dissent

  • Data analystCautious
  • IntelligenceAgree
  • MarketCautious
  • QuantAgree
  • Red team: 7 challenges

Summary

Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals and 6.6 shots on target per match over the last 10 matches, above Cagliari's 0.9 and 4, resulting in a slight lean toward the away side on the Asian handicap. Frosinone's away expected goals conceded of 2.75 and its recent high-scoring matches support over on the total goals line of 3, but Cagliari's home averages of 0.8 goals and 1 goal conceded create a countervailing constraint, limiting the overall strength of the judgment.

  • Asian handicapLean · NeutralStrength 2/5
    • On the Asian handicap, Frosinone's attacking performance has a slight advantage: it has averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals and 6.6 shots on target over the last 10 matches, compared with Cagliari's 0.9, 1.23 and 4.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Recent scorelines also favor the away side: Frosinone has won 2-0 and 5-1 and drew 4-4 away to Atalanta, while Cagliari's recent scorelines include 1-2, 2-4 and 0-2.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In the venue split, Frosinone has averaged 2 goals and 1.5 expected goals per match away from home, compared with Cagliari's 0.8 goals and 0.9 expected goals per match at home. The away attack retains an advantage, but the away sample contains only 4 matches, so the lean should not be too strong.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 平手盘概率按排除平局后的两侧口径表达，平局对应走盘。 · 客队客场样本不足完整的近5场，主队主场样本包含上赛季比赛。 · 人员可用性与预计首发数据缺失，不能评估阵容变化是否改变进攻优势。

  • Over / underLean · OverStrength 2/5Probability 56%
    • There is an over case for the total goals line of 3 in Frosinone's recent matches: the 5-1, 4-4 and 4-2 scorelines came in matches with over/under lines of 3.5, 3.75 and 3.25 respectively, and all finished over.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals and 6.6 shots on target per match over the last 10 matches, along with 2.16 expected goals conceded. Its attacking output and the opportunities allowed defensively jointly support a higher total of goals.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Cagliari recently lost 2-4 to Roma and 0-4 to Monza, with expected goals conceded of 2.96 and 2.08 respectively. Actual goals conceded exceeded expectations, potentially reflecting opponent finishing efficiency or goalkeeper variation, but expected goals conceded also show defensive pressure in those matches and should not be attributed entirely to chance.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 总进球恰为3时走盘，概率按排除走盘后的两侧口径表达。 · 客队实际进球高于预期进球，其终结效率能否延续存在不确定性。 · 缺少详细进球时段、预计首发及人员缺阵信息。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-2Strength 1/5
    • 1-2 is selected as a low-strength exact score: Cagliari has averaged 0.9 goals and 1.23 expected goals over the last 10 matches, while Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals and 1.77 expected goals, with attacking performance more supportive of the away side scoring more.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In the venue split, the home side has averaged 0.8 goals per match and the away side 2 goals per match away from home. However, the home side has averaged 1 goal conceded per match at home and the away side has generated 1.5 expected goals away from home, so this scoreline is a concentrated judgment based on limited data rather than an exact prediction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 比分分布及各比分概率数据缺失，单一比分判断强度较低。 · 交锋记录、人员信息和预计首发数据缺失。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • The 2-3 goal total band is selected for now: Cagliari has averaged 0.8 goals and conceded 1 per match at home, while Frosinone has averaged 2 goals and conceded 2 per match away from home. The two venue-specific profiles provide lower and higher total-goal evidence respectively, making the middle band more suitable as a low-strength distribution judgment.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In specific matches, Cagliari has recorded 1-2, 0-2 and 1-1, while Frosinone has recorded 2-0 and 0-3, providing direct samples for the 2-3 goal band. These scorelines are used only to identify the concentration area in the distribution and not as evidence for the over/under direction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 进球档完整定义及各档概率数据缺失。 · 最可能的单一进球档与大小球盘口方向不是同一判断，较高进球档的分散概率仍可能影响大小球倾向。

Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 21:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-3 → 1-2
    • Correct score: Probability 6% → 9%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 19%
  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 14:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 22%
  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:33View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line 0 → 0.25
    • Asian handicap: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Asian handicap: Probability 57% → 52%
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Total goals: Probability 20% → 21%
  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 04:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
    • Total goals: Probability 18% → 20%
  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:11Current

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Frosinone 0 Lean 56%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  4. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionKept · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  6. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 6 · Nov 07, 2026, 21:44 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  3. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal
  4. Reference opinionKept · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
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