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Cagliari vs Frosinone

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Free todayFinished
Cagliari
1:0Sat, Nov 07 22:00Unipol Domus
Frosinone
FreeVersion 3 · Odds move rerun · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33Data completeness 78%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

No recommended side for this match, but 1 reference opinion: the chief and the model agree, on the favourite side, with a gap of at least 1 point, yet short of the recommendation bar. Not a pick; for reference only.

Why a pass

  • Asian handicap: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  • Over / under: Chief's probability too close to the market

Watch out for

  • Frosinone has averaged 2.75 expected goals conceded over its last 4 away matches, and defensive pressure may offset its attacking advantage.
  • Cagliari has averaged only 0.8 goals over its last 5 home matches. If the home side continues to struggle to create effective chances, Frosinone’s attack may not be enough to support the over by itself.
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Market verdicts

  • Asian handicapFrosinone -0.2552%Pass
  • Over / underOver 3.2552%Pass
  • Correct score1-35%
  • Total goals4+ goals21%

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Asian handicapFrosinone 0LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · withdrawn or switched Nov 07, 2026, 13:33
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap retains the Frosinone away-side direction, with the core basis being its superior attacking output over the last 10 matches, but the line has been repriced to Cagliari receiving a quarter-goal handicap. The over/under retains the over direction, supported by Frosinone’s attack and the opportunities allowed by both teams’ defenses, while Cagliari’s low home scoring output limits the strength of the assessment.

Weighting notes · Starting from the current market prices, the blended model is counted only once, without separately reusing the original model, ratings, or sample bonuses. The Asian handicap moved from level to Cagliari receiving a quarter-goal handicap (+0.25), so the probability was reassessed against the current line, while the direction and strength recommendation remain unchanged. For over/under, the data analyst’s 56% figure expressed against the previous line is not used, nor is the completed line increase treated as an additional advantage. The supplied weights are used as a reference across perspectives, but the data analyst’s previous-line basis and the intelligence analyst’s unconfirmed suspension impact are downweighted. The opposing views on away defensive performance and Cagliari’s low home scoring output are included in the two-sided ledger. The view that current prices alone favor Cagliari is not accepted as grounds for denying Frosinone a fair advantage, and a player’s absence from the projected lineup is not treated as confirmed absence. Newly collected statistics are not treated as a change in the underlying fundamentals.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Frosinone -0.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt当前主队受让平半（+0.25）、客队让平半的模型融合后概率为客队50%、主队50%，对应客队市场隐含48%；只有限采用融合后的判断，不重复计入原模型客队67%。Frosinone · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次；卡利亚里分别为0.9、1.23和4次，客队进攻表现支持客队方向。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 pt弗罗西诺内近期客场战平亚特兰大，随后连续击败莱切和都灵；近期表现支持客队，但与整体进攻统计相关，仅作有限补充。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • +0.5 ptMattia Felici缺阵获2家出版方报道，但现有材料不能明确拆分其攻防影响，只对主队人员可用性作轻量下调。Frosinone · News · Verified
  • -1.0 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均失球1；弗罗西诺内所提供的客场近4场场均失球2、预期失球2.75，客队防守给主队留下抗衡空间。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，场均失球1.4低于预期失球2.16，实际攻防结果较机会质量有利，不完整外推其近期效率。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • —A. Obert停赛报道存在相反说法，仅1家出版方报道，不按确认减员提高客队概率。Neutral · News · Unverified
  • —双方战意画像均为赛季初段，不存在需求不对称，不因排名给客队额外战意修正。Neutral · Match data · Verified

Over / under · Over 3.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，其进攻产出和机会创造支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +2.0 pt卡利亚里近10场场均预期失球1.85，弗罗西诺内为2.16；客队所提供的客场近4场场均预期失球2.75，双方允许的机会支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +0.5 pt当前3.25线的融合后模型给大球50%、小球50%，市场隐含同为50%；模型接近中性，只作轻量的大球修正，不重复计入原模型或融合参数。Over · Quant model · Verified
  • -2.0 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、失球1、预期进球0.9，主队主场较低的进攻产出与失球结果构成小球依据。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不能假设近期终结效率完整延续。Under · Match data · Verified
  • —当前3.25线大球与小球均为1.94，去水隐含均为50%；报价只作为判断起点，不把已经完成的升线重复作为大球加分。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified
  • —A. Obert停赛报道存在核验冲突，仅1家出版方报道，不预先按主队后防减员增加大球概率。Neutral · News · Unverified

Red team · 7 challenges

The strongest challenges focus on the Asian handicap and the over. All four handicap views favor the away side, but after the line rose to Cagliari +0.25, the de-vigged implied probability is 52% for the home side, contrary to the market analyst’s 51% for the away side. The intelligence analyst’s 56% for the away side rests on personnel reports without positions or quantified output and without structured lineup support for the suspensions. The quantitative analyst’s 2 percentage-point advantage falls within the half-width of the stated interval. On the over, the data analyst’s 56% is still expressed against a 3-goal total, whereas the current price is 3.25, on which exactly 3 goals would settle as half a loss on the over. Cagliari’s home averages of 0.9 expected goals and 1.76 expected goals conceded also indicate a meaningful low-total-goals sample, while the market analyst’s main case for the over is the line increase that has already occurred.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Over / under · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

大球 56%，依据里写「在总进球 3 的盘口上」，不确定项写「总进球恰为3时走盘」

这 56% 是按总进球 3 的盘口口径给出的：依据里明确写「在总进球3的盘口上」，不确定项还写「总进球恰为3时走盘」。但当前盘口线已经是 3.25，他自己可见的即时盘口就写着 3.25。按结算对照，总进球恰好 3 球时大球输一半、小球赢一半，不再是走盘；大球全赢的门槛被抬到 4 球。同一份进球分布放到 3.25 线上，56% 不能平移到现价。他引用的主队主场数据也不站在大球一侧：主场场均预期进球 0.9、预期失球 1.76，主场近 5 场里 0-2、1-1、0-1、2-1 都是低总进球样本。

Reverse scenario · 弗罗西诺内延续 5-1、4-4、4-2 一类的高比分局，总进球达到 4 球及以上，大球在 3.25 线全赢 · Reverse scenario probability 32%

6 more challenges (Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Over / under)

Detailed verdict for each market

Asian handicap

Frosinone -0.25

Pass

Frosinone

52%

Why a pass · The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies

Flip condition

If the official starting lineup confirms that key Frosinone attacking personnel are clearly absent while Cagliari’s key personnel are available without a corresponding reduction, shift to the home side or pass.

Edge+3.9 pt

Over / under

Over 3.25

Reference opinionPass

Over

52%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +2.0 pt · 弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，其进攻产出和机会创造支持大球。
  • +2.0 pt · 卡利亚里近10场场均预期失球1.85，弗罗西诺内为2.16；客队所提供的客场近4场场均预期失球2.75，双方允许的机会支持大球。
  • +0.5 pt · 当前3.25线的融合后模型给大球50%、小球50%，市场隐含同为50%；模型接近中性，只作轻量的大球修正，不重复计入原模型或融合参数。
  • -2.0 pt · 卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、失球1、预期进球0.9，主队主场较低的进攻产出与失球结果构成小球依据。
  • -0.5 pt · 弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不能假设近期终结效率完整延续。
  • — · 当前3.25线大球与小球均为1.94，去水隐含均为50%；报价只作为判断起点，不把已经完成的升线重复作为大球加分。
  • — · A. Obert停赛报道存在核验冲突，仅1家出版方报道，不预先按主队后防减员增加大球概率。

Flip condition

If the official starting lineup confirms that key Frosinone attacking personnel are clearly absent and Cagliari’s defense has no corresponding reduction, shift to the under or pass.

Edge+2.0 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Frosinone -0.25 and Over 3.25 come in (full or half win; 20.7% in total), the most likely is 1-3 (5.4%)

  • 1-35%
  • 2-34%
  • 1-43%
Most likely · 1-3

Total goals

Probability

If Frosinone -0.25 and Over 3.25 come in (full or half win; 20.7% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (20.7%)

  • 0–1 goals0%
  • 2–3 goals0%
  • 4+ goals21%
Most likely · 4+ goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Summary

Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals and 6.6 shots on target over its last 10 matches, compared with 0.9 goals and 4 shots on target for Cagliari, resulting in a slight lean toward the away side at the level handicap. Frosinone’s 2.75 expected goals conceded away and its recent high scores support the over for 3 total goals, but Cagliari’s home averages of 0.8 goals and 1 goal conceded create a reverse constraint, so the overall assessment is limited in strength.

  • Asian handicapLean · FrosinoneStrength 2/5Probability 52%
    • At the level handicap, Frosinone’s attacking performance has a slight edge: over its last 10 matches it has averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals, and 6.6 shots on target, compared with 0.9 goals, 1.23 expected goals, and 4 shots on target for Cagliari.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Recent scorelines also favor the away side: Frosinone has won 2-0 and 5-1 consecutively and also drew 4-4 away to Atalanta. Cagliari’s recent scorelines include 1-2, 2-4, and 0-2.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In the venue split, Frosinone has averaged 2 goals and 1.5 expected goals away, while Cagliari has averaged 0.8 goals and 0.9 expected goals at home. The away side retains an attacking advantage, but the away sample contains only 4 matches, so the lean should not be strong.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 平手盘概率按排除平局后的两侧口径表达，平局对应走盘。 · 客队客场样本不足完整的近5场，主队主场样本包含上赛季比赛。 · 人员可用性与预计首发数据缺失，不能评估阵容变化是否改变进攻优势。

  • Over / underLean · OverStrength 2/5Probability 56%
    • At the 3-goal total, Frosinone’s recent matches provide support for the over: the 5-1, 4-4, and 4-2 scorelines correspond to over/under lines of 3.5, 3.75, and 3.25, respectively, and all finished over.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals and 6.6 shots on target over its last 10 matches, along with 2.16 expected goals conceded per match. Its attacking output and the opportunities allowed by its defense jointly support a higher total.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Cagliari recently lost 2-4 to Roma and 0-4 to Monza, with expected goals conceded of 2.96 and 2.08, respectively. Actual goals conceded exceeded expected goals conceded, which may reflect opponents’ finishing efficiency or goalkeeper variation, but the expected goals conceded themselves also show defensive pressure and cannot be attributed entirely to chance.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 总进球恰为3时走盘，概率按排除走盘后的两侧口径表达。 · 客队实际进球高于预期进球，其终结效率能否延续存在不确定性。 · 缺少详细进球时段、预计首发及人员缺阵信息。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-2Strength 1/5
    • A low-intensity single scoreline view of 1-2: Cagliari has averaged 0.9 goals and 1.23 expected goals over its last 10 matches, while Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals and 1.77 expected goals, so attacking performance more strongly supports Frosinone scoring more goals.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In the venue split, the home side has averaged 0.8 goals and the away side 2 goals away. However, the home side has averaged 1 goal conceded and the away side 1.5 expected goals, so this scoreline is only a concentrated judgment based on limited data and should not be interpreted as a precise prediction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 比分分布及各比分概率数据缺失，单一比分判断强度较低。 · 交锋记录、人员信息和预计首发数据缺失。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • The total-goals band is provisionally set at 2-3 goals: Cagliari’s home averages of 0.8 goals and 1 goal conceded and Frosinone’s away averages of 2 goals and 2 goals conceded provide venue-specific grounds for a lower and a higher total, respectively, making the middle band more suitable as a low-intensity distribution judgment.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In specific matches, Cagliari has recently recorded 1-2, 0-2, and 1-1, while Frosinone has recorded 2-0 and 0-3, providing direct samples for the 2-3 goal band. These scorelines are used only to assess the concentrated area of the distribution, not as a basis for the over/under direction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 进球档完整定义及各档概率数据缺失。 · 最可能的单一进球档与大小球盘口方向不是同一判断，较高进球档的分散概率仍可能影响大小球倾向。

Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 21:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-3 → 1-2
    • Correct score: Probability 6% → 9%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 19%
  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 14:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 22%
  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:33Current

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line 0 → 0.25
    • Asian handicap: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Asian handicap: Probability 57% → 52%
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Total goals: Probability 20% → 21%
  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 04:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
    • Total goals: Probability 18% → 20%
  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Frosinone 0 Lean 56%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  4. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionKept · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  6. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 6 · Nov 07, 2026, 21:44 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  3. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal
  4. Reference opinionKept · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
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