Skip to content
Become a memberLog in

Cagliari vs Frosinone

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Free todayFinished
Cagliari
1:0Sat, Nov 07 22:00Unipol Domus
Frosinone
FreeVersion 2 · Odds move rerun · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41Data completeness 78%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

The Asian handicap leans more toward Frosinone. The key factor is not the unconfirmed news that a home player will be absent, but Frosinone's better recent attacking output, chance creation and shots on target. Cagliari's home defensive record and Frosinone's away defensive vulnerabilities leave this assessment with clear room for qualification.

Asian handicap · Core direction

Frosinone 0

Verdict probability

57%

LeanEdge+3.2 ptλ-blended model probability 56%

Price at analysis 1.81 (unchanged since Nov 07, 2026, 04:26)

Line at analysis: Frosinone 0Closing main line: Frosinone -0.25 · price 1.88 (Nov 07, 2026, 21:56)The line has moved; this call only holds at Frosinone 0

Why

  1. Frosinone has averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals and 6.6 shots on target over the last 10 matches, compared with 0.9, 1.23 and 4 for Cagliari; the away side's attacking advantage has support in chance quality and does not depend only on goals scored.
  2. Frosinone recently drew 2-2 away at Atalanta before beating Lecce and Torino in succession, with the sustained attacking performance providing additional support for the away side.

Watch out for

  • Cagliari have averaged 1 goal conceded at home over their last 5 matches, while Frosinone's 2.75 expected goals conceded per match over the last 4 away matches could leave the home side with opportunities.
  • Frosinone have averaged 2.4 goals over the last 10 matches, above their 1.77 expected goals, so the continuation of their recent finishing efficiency should be treated cautiously.
How do I read these numbers?
  • 57%: the chief’s final probability that Frosinone 0 lands, after weighing every analyst (the quant model gives the same side 56%, a gap of +0.9 pt; main factor: 融合后模型给客队56%、主队44%，融合权重为0.1；模型已包含市场信息，只作有限调整，不把原模型客队75%另行计入。).
  • 54%: the market’s own view, converted from the consensus odds with the margin removed.
  • +3.2 pt: the verdict probability minus the market’s; a positive number means we rate this direction higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade 4 of 5 stars: computed by code from the evidence — one star each for a gap big enough for lean, a gap big enough for strong, agreeing with the model, a mostly verified factor ledger and complete data (at least one star). Not a hit rate: four stars does not mean four in five land.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Other market verdicts

  • Over / underOver 3.2550%Pass
  • Correct score1-35%
  • Total goals4+ goals20%

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Asian handicapFrosinone 0LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · withdrawn or switched Nov 07, 2026, 13:33
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap still leans toward Frosinone, based mainly on attacking output, expected goals and shots on target over the last 10 matches; the over/under line has moved up to 3.25 and the over direction is retained, but Cagliari's low home attacking output and the risk that the away side's efficiency fades clearly limit the margin of the call.

Weighting notes · Starting from the current de-vigged pricing, the model applies only a limited adjustment: the blend weight is 0.1, and the model and market must not be treated as two independent supports. The weights are 1 for data and the quantitative perspective, 0.85 for intel and 0.9 for the market, but probabilities are not mechanically averaged. The Asian handicap carries over the previous direction and grade; the away side's attacking data outweighs the conflicting suspension news. The over/under probability for the over is reduced again because the line moved up to 3.25, while the direction and grade are unchanged; the data analyst's 56% for the over is still on the old line basis and is not directly adopted. The dissenting 54% for the under is an important constraint, but the expected goals conceded by both sides still support keeping the over direction. The re-collected team data and motivation profiles show no evidence of content change and are not treated as new factors; both sides are early in the season, so no motivation adjustment is added for league position.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Frosinone 0 · Lean

  • +2.0 pt融合后模型给客队56%、主队44%，融合权重为0.1；模型已包含市场信息，只作有限调整，不把原模型客队75%另行计入。Frosinone · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次；卡利亚里分别为0.9、1.23和4次，客队进攻表现占优。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 pt弗罗西诺内近期先客场战平亚特兰大，再连续击败莱切和都灵；这一走势支持客队，但与整体进攻统计相关，只作有限补充。Frosinone · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均失球1；弗罗西诺内所提供的近4个客场场均失球2、预期失球2.75，客队防守给主队留下抗衡空间。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，场均失球1.4低于预期失球2.16，实际攻防结果均较机会质量有利，不能完整外推。Cagliari · Match data · Verified
  • —A. Obert停赛报道存在相反说法，只有1家出版方，不据此提高客队概率。Neutral · News · Unverified
  • —双方战意画像均为赛季初段，没有需求不对称，不因积分排名额外调整方向。Neutral · Match data · Verified

Over / under · Over 3.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4、预期进球1.77、射正6.6次，实际产出与进攻机会共同支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +2.0 pt卡利亚里近10场场均预期失球1.85，弗罗西诺内为2.16；客队所提供的近4个客场场均预期失球2.75，防守允许的机会支持大球。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +0.5 pt当前3.25线的融合后模型给大球49%、小球51%，大球市场隐含为48%；模型仅提供轻微的大球修正，不使用原模型概率重复计入。Over · Quant model · Verified
  • -2.0 pt卡利亚里主场近5场场均进球0.8、失球1、预期进球0.9，主队主场进攻产出与失球结果对大球构成约束。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt弗罗西诺内近10场场均进球2.4高于预期进球1.77，不能假设目前的进球效率完整延续。Under · Match data · Verified
  • —当前3.25线大球水位2.01、小球1.88，当前同线只有一家书商报价，报价本身作为概率起点，不再重复增加大球权重。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified
  • —A. Obert停赛报道存在核验冲突，只有1家出版方，不预先按主队防线减员增加大球概率。Neutral · News · Unverified

Why Frosinone 0

Asian handicap · Reasons, risks and what would flip it

Key evidence 5

  1. The current line is the Asian handicap (0), with neither team given a handicap; the home-side price is 2.11 and the away-side price is 1.81, implying 46% for the home side and 54% for the away side after de-vigging. The away-side direction is retained from the current pricing.Market consensus · Nov 07, 2026, 04:26
  2. The blended model gives the away side 56%, above the market implied probability; this report is slightly above the model, based mainly on the away side's attacking output and shots-on-target advantage rather than unconfirmed suspension news. With a blend weight of only 0.1, the model and market are not treated as two independent supports.Quant model · Nov 07, 2026, 04:26
  3. Frosinone have averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals and 6.6 shots on target over the last 10 matches, compared with 0.9, 1.23 and 4 for Cagliari; the away side's attacking advantage is supported not only by actual goals but also by chance quality and shots on target.Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 04:26
  4. The countervailing constraint is that Cagliari have averaged 1 goal conceded over their last 5 home matches, while Frosinone have provided 2.75 expected goals conceded per match over their last 4 away matches; additionally, Frosinone's 2.4 goals per match over the last 10 matches exceed their 1.77 expected goals, so the estimate is not fully increased for their recent finishing efficiency.Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 04:26
  5. The report that A. Obert is suspended comes from only one publisher and is contradicted by other reports, so it cannot be treated as a confirmed defensive absence; the away-side assessment does not depend on this report being correct.News · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

Dissent 2

  • The dissenting view gives the away side 53%, arguing that conflicting suspension news is insufficient for a further increase and that the blended model depends heavily on the market while the away-side sample is small. The limits concerning personnel news and model independence are accepted, but Frosinone's attacking and shots-on-target advantage over the last 10 matches still supports a higher estimate.Red team · Strength 4/5
  • The data analyst remains neutral on the Asian handicap, mainly because of the defensive pressure Frosinone face away from home and the possibility that their actual attacking and defensive results will not continue to exceed expectations.Data analyst · Strength 2/5

Main risks 3

  • Frosinone's away sample contains only 4 matches, with 2.75 expected goals conceded per match, so their attacking advantage does not mean their defence can suppress the home side.
  • Official starting-lineup data for both teams is missing; the media projected lineup does not include A. Raimondo, but this cannot establish that the forward, who has scored 8 goals over the last 10 matches, is absent or being rested.
  • The away side has 8.7 weighted model matches and a blend weight of 0.1, limiting the model's ability to validate the current pricing independently.

Flip condition

If the official starting lineup confirms that A. Raimondo is unavailable and the away side's main attacking personnel also show clear reductions, weakening the current attacking advantage, the assessment changes to pass; if the home side also retains its main attacking personnel, the home side should then be reassessed.

Red team · 6 challenges

There are two strongest objections. The data analyst's 56% over probability is still expressed against a 3-goal line, while the market has moved to 3.25, and Cagliari's last 5 home scores all fall on the under side of that line. The intel and quantitative analysts both give the away side 56%, but the former relies on a conflicting single-source suspension report and absences of unknown position, while the latter has a blend weight of only 0.1 and 8.7 weighted away-side matches; agreement does not make either view correct. In addition, the data analyst selects the over at 3.25 but chooses a 2-to-3-goal band, offsetting the two directions.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Intelligence · Asian handicap · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

情报分析师在让球盘给客队 56%（强度 3），理由是主队伤停与停赛削弱了防线可用性。

这条倾向的三处人员依据都不够支撑 3 级：主队结构化伤停只确认 Riyad Idrissi 一人缺阵且位置缺失，停赛列表为空；奥贝尔特的停赛报道核验等级为存在相反报道、仅 1 家出版方；Felici 与 Fadera 同样没有位置资料，分析师自己也写了「无法量化」。与此同时，主队预计首发仍包含 Maldini、Adopo、Romano 和 Mendy，核心中前场并未被报道整体撤下；反倒是客队预计名单里没有近 10 场打进 8 球的 A. Raimondo。依据停留在「主队可能减员」而无法量化攻防两端时，3 级偏客队的强度偏高。

Reverse scenario · 奥贝尔特的停赛未被官方确认或报道被证伪，主队中前场四人照常首发，平手盘由主队一侧落定或打平走盘。 · Reverse scenario probability 45%

5 more challenges (Over / under · Asian handicap · Total goals · Over / under · Total goals)

Detailed verdict for each market

Over / under

Over 3.25

Pass

Over

50%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Flip condition

If the official starting lineup confirms that A. Raimondo is unavailable and the away side's main attacking personnel also show clear reductions, weakening the primary support from Frosinone's attacking output, the assessment changes to the under or pass.

Edge+1.7 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Frosinone 0 and Over 3.25 come in (full or half win; 19.5% in total), the most likely is 1-3 (5.2%)

  • 1-35%
  • 2-34%
  • 1-42%
Most likely · 1-3

Total goals

Probability

If Frosinone 0 and Over 3.25 come in (full or half win; 19.5% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (19.5%)

  • 0–1 goals0%
  • 2–3 goals0%
  • 4+ goals20%
Most likely · 4+ goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Analyst consensus

4 analysts: 2 agree · 2 cautious · 0 dissent

  • Data analystCautious
  • IntelligenceAgree
  • MarketCautious
  • QuantAgree
  • Red team: 6 challenges

Summary

Frosinone have averaged 2.4 goals and 6.6 shots on target over the last 10 matches, above Cagliari's 0.9 and 4, giving the Asian handicap a slight lean toward the away side. The away side's 2.75 expected goals conceded away and recent high-scoring matches support an over direction at a total of 3 goals, but Cagliari's 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per home match provide a countervailing constraint, limiting the overall strength of the assessment.

  • Asian handicapLean · NeutralStrength 2/5
    • Under the Asian handicap, Frosinone's attacking performance has a slight edge: over the last 10 matches they have averaged 2.4 goals, 1.77 expected goals and 6.6 shots on target; Cagliari's corresponding figures are 0.9, 1.23 and 4.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Recent scorelines also favour the away side: Frosinone have won 2-0 and 5-1 consecutively and drew 4-4 away at Atalanta, while Cagliari's recent scorelines include 1-2, 2-4 and 0-2.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In the venue split, Frosinone average 2 goals and 1.5 expected goals away from home; Cagliari average 0.8 goals and 0.9 expected goals at home. The away side retains an attacking advantage, but the away sample contains only 4 matches, so the lean should not be too strong.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 平手盘概率按排除平局后的两侧口径表达，平局对应走盘。 · 客队客场样本不足完整的近5场，主队主场样本包含上赛季比赛。 · 人员可用性与预计首发数据缺失，不能评估阵容变化是否改变进攻优势。

  • Over / underLean · OverStrength 2/5Probability 56%
    • At the total of 3 goals, Frosinone's recent matches provide support for the over: the 5-1, 4-4 and 4-2 scorelines had over/under lines of 3.5, 3.75 and 3.25 respectively, and all went over.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Frosinone have averaged 2.4 goals and 6.6 shots on target over the last 10 matches, while also averaging 2.16 expected goals conceded; their attacking output and the opportunities allowed by their defence jointly support a higher total of goals.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • Cagliari recently lost 2-4 to Roma and 0-4 to Monza, with 2.96 and 2.08 expected goals conceded respectively. Actual goals conceded exceeded expectations, which may reflect opposing finishing efficiency or goalkeeper performance variation, but expected goals conceded also show defensive pressure in those matches and cannot be attributed only to chance.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 总进球恰为3时走盘，概率按排除走盘后的两侧口径表达。 · 客队实际进球高于预期进球，其终结效率能否延续存在不确定性。 · 缺少详细进球时段、预计首发及人员缺阵信息。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-2Strength 1/5
    • A low-intensity single-score assessment of 1-2: Cagliari have averaged 0.9 goals and 1.23 expected goals over the last 10 matches, while Frosinone have averaged 2.4 goals and 1.77 expected goals, with their attacking performance more supportive of the away side scoring more.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In the venue split, the home side averages 0.8 goals scored and the away side 2 goals scored away from home; however, the home side averages 1 goal conceded at home and the away side 1.5 expected goals away from home, so this is only a concentrated assessment under limited data and should not be read as an exact prediction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 比分分布及各比分概率数据缺失，单一比分判断强度较低。 · 交锋记录、人员信息和预计首发数据缺失。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • The total-goals band is provisionally set at 2-3 goals: Cagliari average 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded at home, while Frosinone average 2 goals scored and 2 conceded away from home. The two teams' venue-based performances provide low and high total-goals arguments respectively, making the middle band more suitable as a low-intensity distribution assessment.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01
    • In specific matches, Cagliari recently recorded 1-2, 0-2 and 1-1, while Frosinone recorded 2-0 and 0-3, providing direct examples for the 2-3-goal band; these scorelines are used only to assess the concentration of the distribution and not as a basis for the over/under direction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 22:01

    Uncertainties · 进球档完整定义及各档概率数据缺失。 · 最可能的单一进球档与大小球盘口方向不是同一判断，较高进球档的分散概率仍可能影响大小球倾向。

Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 21:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-3 → 1-2
    • Correct score: Probability 6% → 9%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 19%
  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 14:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Total goals: Probability 21% → 22%
  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:33View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line 0 → 0.25
    • Asian handicap: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Asian handicap: Probability 57% → 52%
    • Over / under: Probability 50% → 52%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Total goals: Probability 20% → 21%
  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 04:41Current

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 50%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
    • Total goals: Probability 18% → 20%
  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Frosinone 0 Lean 56%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Frosinone 0 Lean 57%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  4. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionKept · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%
  6. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 6 · Nov 07, 2026, 21:44 · Frosinone -0.25 Pass 52%

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 22:11 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 2 · Nov 07, 2026, 04:41 · Over 3 Pass 54%
  3. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 3 · Nov 07, 2026, 13:33 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal
  4. Reference opinionKept · Version 4 · Nov 07, 2026, 14:26 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
  5. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 5 · Nov 07, 2026, 20:09 · Over 3.25 Pass 52%
Bookmark
Log in to follow