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Botafogo vs Atletico-MG

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Botafogo
1:0Thu, Nov 05 08:30Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Atletico-MG

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 06:40
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 06:40

Data completeness 83%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Botafogo have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over the last 10 matches, which is insufficient to support the home side giving 1 goal, and overall this leans toward Atletico-MG receiving. The home side's 0.68 expected goals conceded over the last 5 home matches and the away side's 0.89 expected goals over the last 5 away matches make the 2.75-goal line lean slightly under, but the away side's average of 1.8 goals conceded per away match is the main reverse risk.[source=stats:api_sports; fetched_at=2026-11-04T22:31:24.094Z]

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 06:40Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 15:14View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 09:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 08:44View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAtletico-MG +1Push
Over / underUnder 2.75Win
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Atletico-MG +1 → push; over/under Under 2.75 → win; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 05, 2026, 10:36