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Botafogo vs Atletico-MG

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Botafogo
1:0Thu, Nov 05 08:30Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Atletico-MG

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:21
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:21

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Botafogo has averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over its last 10 matches, but over its last 5 home matches it has averaged 1.45 expected goals and 0.68 expected goals conceded. The divergence between overall form and home performance means the -0.5 line should only lean slightly toward the away side receiving the handicap. Atletico-MG has averaged 0.89 expected goals over its last 5 away matches. Combined with a head-to-head average of 1.33 total goals per match, the 2.75 line leans toward the under, although its away average of 1.8 goals conceded is the main countervailing risk.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 06:40View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:21Current

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 15:14View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 09:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 08:44View this version

    Direction unchanged