Skip to content
Become a memberLog in

Botafogo vs Atletico-MG

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Botafogo
1:0Thu, Nov 05 08:30Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Atletico-MG

Unlock the full analysis

Members see every analysis; you can also unlock this match with points, including all versions and the post-match review.

  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 09:18
You get
The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
For how long
Yours to read forever, including every version of this match and the post-match review
Not included
This match's article (10 points) and video (15 points) unlock separately
Log in to unlock · 38 ptsBecome a member

The preview shows the match header, base data and each analyst's summary. An unlock opens this match only and does not change your membership level.

Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 09:18

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Botafogo have scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.6 per match over the last 10 matches, but have generated 1.45 expected goals and conceded 0.68 expected goals per match over their last 5 home matches. Their overall form and home performance therefore diverge, resulting in only a slight lean toward Atletico-MG receiving the half-goal handicap. Atletico-MG have generated 0.89 expected goals per match over their last 5 away matches, and the teams have averaged 1.33 total goals in their head-to-head meetings, leaning toward the under at 2.75. However, Atletico-MG's 1.8 goals conceded per match away from home is the main risk.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 06:40View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 15:14View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 09:18Current

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 08:44View this version

    Direction unchanged