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Botafogo vs Atletico-MG

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Botafogo
1:0Thu, Nov 05 08:30Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Atletico-MG

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 15:14
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 15:14

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Botafogo have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match over their last 10 matches, but over their last 5 home matches they have averaged 1.45 expected goals and 0.68 expected goals conceded. Overall recent form and home performance therefore diverge, leaving the handicap only slightly tilted toward Atletico-MG receiving the handicap. Atletico-MG have averaged 0.89 expected goals over their last 5 away matches, and the teams’ head-to-head matches have averaged 1.33 total goals, making the 2.75 line lean toward the under. However, Atletico-MG’s average of 1.8 goals conceded per away match is the main opposing risk.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 06:40View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 15:14Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 09:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 08:44View this version

    Direction unchanged