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Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles

Eredivisie· Round Regular Season - 12Finished
Excelsior
0:1Sun, Nov 08 04:00Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
GO Ahead Eagles

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 6 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:38
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Market verdicts

Version 6 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:38

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Excelsior conceded 3.8 goals per match in their last 5 home games, while GO Ahead Eagles conceded 3.4 per match in their last 5 away games, creating an overall lean toward the over 3 line. GO Ahead Eagles averaged 1.62 expected goals and 5.4 shots on target over their last 10 matches, supporting the -0.25 side, although their weak away defense limits the strength of that assessment. The data came from stats:api_sports and was collected on November 7.

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Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 03:38Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:08View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 21:44View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 16:03View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 09:50View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 190 minutes 0-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapGO Ahead Eagles -0.25Win
Over / underOver 3Loss
Correct score1-3Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 0-1. Asian handicap GO Ahead Eagles -0.25 → win; over/under Over 3 → loss; correct score 1-3 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 06:06