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Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
PSG
1:0Sun, Nov 08 04:05Parc des Princes
Estac Troyes

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 8 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:45
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Market verdicts

Version 8 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:45

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Paris averaged 3.6 goals per game over its last 10 matches, above its 2.57 expected goals, while Estac Troyes averaged only 0.5 goals and conceded 1.25 per away match. Both the home -2.25 handicap and the 3.5 total therefore have clear two-way support. The overall view leans slightly toward the away side receiving the handicap and the under, with 2-0 as the score center and 2-3 as the goals band. Paris's recent 6-0 and 5-1 results limit the strength of those calls.

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Analysis versions (8)
  1. Version 8Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 03:45Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 7Price updateNov 08, 2026, 03:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:20View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 02:09View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 21:40View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  6. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:10View this version

    Direction unchanged

  8. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapEstac Troyes +2.25Win
Over / underOver 3.5Loss
Correct score3-1Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Estac Troyes +2.25 → win; over/under Over 3.5 → loss; correct score 3-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 06:06