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Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
PSG
1:0Sun, Nov 08 04:05Parc des Princes
Estac Troyes

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 02:09
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 02:09

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home team has averaged 3.6 goals and 10.2 shots on target per game over its last 10 matches, while expected goals stand at 2.57, indicating recent over-conversion. The away team averages 0.5 goals and 1.25 goals conceded per away game, with a low-output attack and a defense that retains some resilience creating opposing effects. Both the -2.5 handicap and the 3.75 total-goals line only slightly favor the home team and the over, respectively, while the deep-line threshold and the sustainability of the home team's finishing efficiency limit the strength of the assessment.

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Analysis versions (8)
  1. Version 8Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 03:45View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 7Price updateNov 08, 2026, 03:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:20View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 02:09Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 21:40View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  6. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:10View this version

    Direction unchanged

  8. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:18View this version

    Direction unchanged