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Paris Saint-Germain vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
PSG
1:0Sun, Nov 08 04:05Parc des Princes
Estac Troyes

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 14:10
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 14:10

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home team average 3.6 goals and 10.2 shots on target per game over their last 10, but expected goals are 2.57, so recent actual conversion is elevated; the away team average 0.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded away, with low-output attack and still-resistant defense pulling in opposite directions. The -2.5 handicap and 3.75 total goals line both lean only slightly toward the home team and the over; the deep-line threshold and the sustainability of the home team's finishing efficiency limit the strength of judgment.

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Analysis versions (8)
  1. Version 8Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 03:45View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 7Price updateNov 08, 2026, 03:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:20View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 02:09View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 21:40View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  6. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 20:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:10Current

    Direction unchanged

  8. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:18View this version

    Direction unchanged