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Sevilla vs Alavés

La Liga· Round Regular Season - 12Free todayFinished
Sevilla
0:0Sat, Nov 07 04:00Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
Alavés
FreeVersion 5 · Lineup update · Nov 07, 2026, 03:42Final version · official line-ups includedData completeness 100%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 5 analysts

No recommended side for this match: none of the markets is clear enough, so we suggest sitting it out.

Why a pass

  • Asian handicap: The chief judged it not worth a bet
  • Over / under: The chief judged it not worth a bet

Watch out for

  • Sevilla beat Osasuna, Valencia and Rayo Vallecano in their last 5 home matches, so their actual home results continue to support the home side.
  • The teams have recently averaged 1.8 and 1.7 goals conceded per match and have produced several high-scoring results, so the match may deviate from the home/away attacking averages.
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Market verdicts

  • Asian handicapAlavés +0.551%PassWin
  • Over / underUnder 2.2554%PassWin
  • Correct score1-113%Miss
  • Total goals0–1 goals18%Hit

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Over / underOver 2.25LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 04:08 · withdrawn or switched Nov 06, 2026, 18:51
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

For the Asian handicap, Alavés is the pick at +0.5, based on the away side having a more complete set of core starters while the home side has three confirmed absences. For the over/under, the pick is under, based on Sevilla's expected goals of 1.12 over its last 5 home matches and Alavés scoring 0.8 per match over its last 5 away matches, although recent high-scoring results and the presence of attacking players in both starting lineups create counter-risk.

Weighting notes · The Asian handicap starts from a market and blended-model balance, so the weight on official lineups and injury news is raised while the counter-evidence of Sevilla's home record and Alavés' high away goals-against is retained, which keeps the gap narrow. On the over/under, the market under price, the home/away attacking splits and the home side's personnel gaps support the under; recent actual goals conceded, high-scoring results and the availability of attacking starters limit how far the adjustment can go. Only the blended probabilities from the quantitative model are used, and the raw model output is not counted twice.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Alavés +0.5 · Pass

  • +2.5 pt塞维利亚列出的5名核心球员中4人首发，阿拉维斯5名核心球员全部首发，且R. Ure列为主队替补，阵容完整度支持客队受让。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
  • +2.0 pt官方名单显示塞维利亚M. Bueno因Red Card、Marcao因Muscle Injury、Peque因Hamstring Injury缺阵，阿拉维斯仅M. Rodriguez因Ankle Injury缺阵，主队可用人员损失更多。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.5 pt塞维利亚近5个主场场均预期进球1.12、场均预期失球1.44，主场机会质量没有形成明显压制。Alavés · Match data · Verified
  • +0.8 ptL. Boyé近10场出场802分钟、进球5个，客队保有明确的个人得分威胁。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
  • -2.0 pt阿拉维斯近5个客场场均进球0.8、场均失球2.2，客场结果表现支持主队方向。Sevilla · Match data · Verified
  • -1.2 pt塞维利亚近5个主场曾击败奥萨苏纳、瓦伦西亚和巴列卡诺，主场实际结果为主队方向提供反向支持。Sevilla · Match data · Verified
  • —当前主队让半球（-0.5），主队与客队去水隐含概率均为50%，市场未给出方向差异。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified
  • —融合后模型在主队让半球线上给出主队50%、客队50%，区间均覆盖49%至51%，方向区分度有限。Neutral · Quant model · Verified

Over / under · Under 2.25 · Pass

  • +2.2 pt塞维利亚近5个主场场均预期进球1.12，阿拉维斯近5个客场场均进球0.8，双方同场地进攻产出限制总进球上行空间。Under · Match data · Verified
  • +1.5 pt当前2.25球线上大球价格2.09、小球价格1.83，去水隐含大球47%、小球53%，市场价格明显偏向小球。Under · Market consensus · Verified
  • +1.5 pt官方首发列出L. Stassin为主队前锋，R. Ure在替补席；主队Peque和M. Bueno缺阵，主队进攻组织与替补深度受到限制。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • +0.5 pt融合后模型给出大球49%、小球51%，小球覆盖概率略高但低于市场隐含小球53%，模型本身只提供有限支持。Under · Quant model · Verified
  • -2.0 pt塞维利亚近10场场均进球1.5、失球1.8，阿拉维斯近10场场均进球1.2、失球1.7，近期实际失球表现为大球保留了反向路径。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt双方最近均出现高比分比赛，塞维利亚对莱万特为3-3、对皇马为1-4，阿拉维斯对巴萨为1-6，实际结果支持大球尾部风险。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.2 pt官方首发同时确认阿拉维斯L. Boyé、Toni Martínez以及塞维利亚Félix Correia、Y. Fofana出场，双方仍保留进球人员。Over · Lineups · Verified

Red team · 6 challenges

The three strongest challenges are as follows: the quantitative analyst labeled the 49% over probability as a lean even though his own coverage probability was 51% under, treating the value difference as the direction; the market analyst used one bookmaker's movement between 1.81 and 1.83 to support a clear lean toward the under and rated its strength too highly, although the 2.25 line was never lowered; and the tactics analyst assigned the away side 58%, even though the goals and shots on target he listed favored the home side, so 58% also did not align with his weak-lean label. My assessment is that the home side has a slight edge on the Asian handicap and the under has a slight edge on the over/under, but the advantage is small in both cases.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Quant · Over / under · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

大小球把大球 49% 标为倾向一侧

按他自己的输出，融合后大球 49%、小球 51%，大球区间 47% 至 50%，小球区间 50% 至 53%，覆盖概率更高的一侧是小球；他在依据里也写了按覆盖概率更高的一侧倾向小球。他仍标大球，是用大球高于市场隐含概率 2 个百分点的价值差当作方向，这是两种口径：价值差说的是与自己列出的市场隐含概率相比的价格差，不等于哪一侧更可能打出。另外原模型大球 65% 在融合后掉到 49%，融合权重只有 0.1，说明这条结论对融合口径高度敏感，用一个低于对手的覆盖概率标方向会误导读者。

Reverse scenario · 总进球 2 球及以下，小球全赢或赢一半，他给出的 51% 小球覆盖概率兑现。 · Reverse scenario probability 51%

5 more challenges (Asian handicap · Over / under · Over / under · Over / under · Correct score)

Detailed verdict for each market

Win

Asian handicap

Alavés +0.5

Pass

Alavés

51%

Why a pass · The chief judged it not worth a bet

Flip condition

If key Alavés starters withdraw late or Sevilla's main attacking framework remains intact and materially improves chance quality, switch to the home side or pass.

Edge+1.0 pt
Win

Over / under

Under 2.25

Pass

Under

54%

Why a pass · The chief judged it not worth a bet

Flip condition

If R. Ure receives a more positive late confirmation and the over price continues to fall or the line moves to a higher total, switch to the over or pass.

Edge+0.7 pt
Miss

Correct score

Probability

If Alavés +0.5 and Under 2.25 come in (full or half win; 34.5% in total), the most likely is 1-1 (13.1%)

  • 1-113%
  • 0-010%
  • 0-18%
Most likely · 1-1
Hit

Total goals

Probability

If Alavés +0.5 and Under 2.25 come in (full or half win; 34.5% in total), the most likely is 0–1 goals (17.7%)

  • 0–1 goals18%
  • 2–3 goals17%
  • 4+ goals0%
Most likely · 0–1 goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Summary

Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals and 1.12 expected goals per match over their last 5 home matches, while Alavés have conceded 2.2 goals and recorded 1.65 expected goals conceded per match over their last 5 away matches. The home side has the conditions to score, but its advantage in chance creation is not clear. The -0.5 Asian handicap and 2.25 over/under both contain offsetting evidence, so the current view is neutral; the score candidate is 1-1 and the goals-band candidate is 2-3.

  • Asian handicapLean · NeutralStrength 1/5
    • The case for Sevilla -0.5 is supported by the visitors' weaker away defense: Alavés have conceded 2.2 goals per match and 1.65 expected goals per match over their last 5 away matches, and recently lost 1-6 to Barcelona and 1-2 to Celta.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • Sevilla beat Osasuna 2-0 in their latest home match, recording 7 shots on target against the opponent's 2 and covering the -0.5 line; however, their average of 1.4 goals and 1.12 expected goals over their last 5 home matches does not show a prominent attacking advantage.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • The case for the visitors receiving the handicap is supported by Sevilla's lack of superior chance creation: their 0.92 expected goals per match over the last 10 matches are below Alavés' 1.19, while their 1.44 expected goals conceded over their last 5 home matches exceed their own 1.12 expected goals scored.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • The most recent same-venue meeting ended 1-1, with Sevilla recording 0.27 expected goals and Alavés 1.13. This indicates that home status cannot be converted directly into a -0.5 advantage, although the head-to-head sample contains only 2 matches.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15

    Uncertainties · 主队近期主场胜绩与较弱的预期进球表现相互牵制，客队客场失球偏高又为主胜提供支持，暂不足以形成清晰方向。 · 主队在让半球盘口上的独立打出概率：数据缺失；未用市场隐含概率替代。 · 伤停、预计首发与裁判信息均为数据缺失。

  • Over / underLean · NeutralStrength 1/5
    • The case for the over at 2.25 is supported by the high actual goals conceded: Sevilla have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 10 matches, while Alavés have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded; Alavés have conceded a further 2.2 per match over their last 5 away matches.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • Recent matches have featured high totals: Sevilla lost 1-3 to Getafe, 1-4 to Real Madrid and 3-3 to Levante; Alavés lost 1-6 to Barcelona and 1-2 to Celta. However, the lines for those matches were not all equal to this match's 2.25.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • The case for the under is supported by limited venue-specific attacking output: Sevilla have recorded 1.12 expected goals over their last 5 home matches; Alavés have scored 0.8 per match with 1.17 expected goals over their last 5 away matches. Sevilla also beat Osasuna 2-0 in their latest home match, which was under at 2.25.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • Actual goals and chance quality diverge: Sevilla's average of 1.5 goals over their last 10 matches exceeds their 0.92 expected goals, and their 1.8 goals conceded exceeds their 1.39 expected goals conceded; Alavés' 2.2 away goals conceded also exceeds their 1.65 expected goals conceded. This may reflect variation in shot conversion and finishing, but goalkeeper-save and error data are missing, so the specific cause cannot be confirmed or a reversion directly assumed.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15

    Uncertainties · 实际比分支持大球，主客场预期进球和客队进球产出则提供反向约束，因此暂不确定方向。 · 2.25盘口涉及部分输赢结算，同口径的独立大球打出概率为数据缺失。 · 主队上半场进球占比0.33，客队为0.42，但更细的进球与失球时段数据缺失。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-1Strength 2/5
    • As a single score candidate, 1-1 is consistent with both sides' limited chance creation: Sevilla have recorded 0.92 expected goals over their last 10 matches and Alavés 1.19, with average shots on target of 4.6 and 4.2 respectively, showing no clear difference in attacking output.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • In the venue splits, Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Alavés have scored 0.8 per match with 1.17 expected goals away. The visitors have a basis for scoring, but the evidence for sustained high output is limited.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • The most recent same-venue meeting ended 1-1, providing a historical reference for this score candidate; the full head-to-head sample contains only 2 matches and should not receive excessive weight.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15

    Uncertainties · 比分概率分布：数据缺失；此处仅作低强度的单一比分排序判断。 · 阿拉维斯客场场均失球2.2，存在主队进球高于该比分候选的风险。 · 比分候选不作为让球或大小球方向的依据。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • The 2-3 goals band is selected as the goals-band candidate, mainly from the venue-specific attack and defense: Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last 5 home matches, while Alavés have averaged 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded over their last 5 away matches. Both sides have scoring routes, but the visitors' attacking output is low.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • The teams' expected goals over their last 10 matches are 0.92 and 1.19, while expected goals conceded are 1.39 and 1.48. These figures support the middle goals band as a candidate but do not rule out a lower or higher total.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15
    • The head-to-head average total is 2.5 goals, with the available scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 compatible with the 2-3 goals candidate. The head-to-head sample contains only 2 matches and is used only as a supplementary reference.· Source Match data · Nov 07, 2026, 02:15

    Uncertainties · 各进球档的独立概率：数据缺失，无法量化该档领先其他档位的幅度。 · 近期存在3-3及1-6等高比分结果，高进球尾部风险仍需保留。 · 进球档是分布候选，不直接用于推导2.25大小球方向。

Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 03:42Current

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Probability 52% → 51%
    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 51% → 54%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-2 → 1-1
    • Correct score: Probability 5% → 13%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 0-1
    • Total goals: Probability 8% → 18%
  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 02:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 51%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 3Price updateNov 06, 2026, 18:51View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Tier Lean → Pass
  4. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 16:51View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 04:08View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Over / under

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 04:08 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 06, 2026, 16:51 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 06, 2026, 18:51 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 090 minutes 0-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAlavés +0.5Win
Over / underUnder 2.25Win
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals0-1Hit

Review

Final score 0-0. Asian handicap Alavés +0.5 → win; over/under Under 2.25 → win; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 0-1 → hit.

Nov 07, 2026, 06:06

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