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Sevilla vs Alavés

La Liga· Round Regular Season - 12Free todayFinished
Sevilla
0:0Sat, Nov 07 04:00Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán
Alavés
FreeVersion 3 · Price update · Nov 06, 2026, 18:51Data completeness 88%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

No recommended side for this match: none of the markets is clear enough, so we suggest sitting it out.

Why a pass

  • Asian handicap: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  • Over / under: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies

Watch out for

  • Sevilla have defeated Osasuna, Valencia and Rayo Vallecano over their last 5 home matches, and their actual results provide more support for the home side than their chance quality does.
  • Sevilla have averaged only 0.92 expected goals per game over their last 10 matches. If actual goals revert toward their chance quality, the support for over will weaken.
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Market verdicts

  • Asian handicapAlavés +0.552%Pass
  • Over / underOver 2.2554%Pass
  • Correct score1-25%
  • Total goals4+ goals9%

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Over / underOver 2.25LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 04:08 · withdrawn or switched Nov 06, 2026, 18:51
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap leans toward Alavés receiving half a goal, mainly because of Sevilla’s personnel losses and weak home chance quality, although Alavés’s defensive limitations away from home constrain the extent of that lean. The over/under leans toward over, based on defensive pressure in the corresponding home and away venues and the absence of several major attacking contributors from the injury lists, while accounting for a possible decline in Sevilla’s attacking conversion.

Weighting notes · Current market pricing is the starting point, with the model used as the primary reference. Because the model already incorporates market information, the two are not treated as independent evidence and added together, and factor magnitudes are used only as approximate adjustments. The Asian handicap retains the data analyst’s evidence for a home result but gives the intelligence analyst’s structured personnel information more scope for adjustment. Regarding the opposing home-team estimate of 50%, the main disagreement concerns the weighting of Sevilla’s personnel losses and home chance quality. The over/under accepts the data analyst’s direction without directly extrapolating the magnitude of recent actual goals scored and conceded; defensive absences are not counted as factors for under. The opposing over estimate of 52% is close to the blended model, and this report makes a slight upward adjustment because of defensive pressure and the continued presence of major attacking contributors on the team lists. Single-source reports and conflicting personnel updates do not drive the main adjustments, and no motivation weighting is added based on league position because both teams are early in the season.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Alavés +0.5 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt塞维利亚的M. Bueno与Peque列为缺阵，I. Romero列为存疑，主队人员可用性受到影响；存疑不按确定缺阵处理。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.5 pt塞维利亚主场近5场场均预期进球1.12、预期失球1.44，机会质量不足以支持持续压制客队。Alavés · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 pt阿拉维斯的L. Boyé近10场进球5个，Angel Pérez近10场助攻3次，两人均未列入当前伤停名单。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
  • +0.5 pt最近一次同场地交锋中，塞维利亚预期进球0.27、阿拉维斯1.13；交锋样本仅2场，因此只作轻微修正。Alavés · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt塞维利亚主场近5场中，面对奥萨苏纳、瓦伦西亚和巴列卡诺均取胜，主场比赛结果支持主队。Sevilla · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt阿拉维斯客场近5场场均进球0.8、场均失球2.2，客场实际攻防结果支持主队，但其中包含客战巴萨的失利。Sevilla · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt关于Youssouf Fofana恢复完整训练的报道获得两家出版方支持，减轻了主队中场可用性的担忧。Sevilla · News · Verified
  • —融合后主队与客队概率四舍五入均为50%，两侧区间均为49%至51%，模型不支持明显偏离市场。Neutral · Quant model · Verified

Over / under · Over 2.25 · Pass

  • +2.6 pt塞维利亚主场近5场场均预期失球1.44，阿拉维斯客场近5场场均预期失球1.65，双方同场地机会质量均显示防守承压。Over · Match data · Verified
  • +1.7 pt2.25球线上，融合后大球概率52%、小球48%，市场两侧隐含概率均为50%；只计入融合后模型，不另加原模型的支持。Over · Quant model · Verified
  • +1.2 ptL. Boyé近10场进球5个、Angel Pérez近10场助攻3次；塞维利亚的Y. Fofana近10场进球1个助攻3次、Félix Correia近10场进球2个助攻2次，这些球员均未列入伤停名单。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • +0.5 pt塞维利亚的Marcao列为缺阵，防守人员可用性下降，不把这一项当作压低总进球的理由。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.0 pt塞维利亚的M. Bueno与Peque列为缺阵，I. Romero列为存疑，组织与进攻人员可用性对大球形成抵消。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.0 pt塞维利亚近10场场均实际进球1.5、预期进球0.92；阿拉维斯客场近5场场均失球2.2包含对巴萨的比赛，近期实际进球表现不宜直接外推。Under · Match data · Verified

Red team · 6 challenges

The strongest three points are as follows. The data analyst’s 65% probability for over lacks quantitative support: Sevilla have averaged only 0.92 expected goals per game over their last 10 matches, their home expected goals per game of 1.12 is below their 1.44 expected goals conceded, and Alavés’s away average of 2.2 goals conceded is inflated by a 1-6 match; at 2.25, over loses half when exactly 2 goals are scored. The quantitative analyst’s Asian handicap summary says it leans slightly toward the away side receiving half a goal, the opposite sign to that analyst’s own value differential, with the home side’s value differential positive and the two ranges fully overlapping. The intelligence analyst gives the away side 54% while also stating that Sevilla’s principal creators, including Fofana, Correa and Ure, are available, and counts Alavés’s defensive absences as a reason for fewer total goals.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Over / under · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

大球 65%（强度 3）

把大球定在 65%，远高于市场去水后的五成，但数据包中没有与这一幅度相称的依据。2.25 的结算规则是总进球恰好 2 球时大球输一半、小球赢一半，大球要全赢需要 3 球及以上，而这个 65% 没有区分这一步。他引用的比分依据也不稳：塞维利亚近 10 场场均预期进球只有 0.92、场均预期失球 1.39，主场近 5 场场均预期进球 1.12、预期失球 1.44，主场机会质量是负差；阿拉维斯近 5 个客场场均失球 2.2 中含一场 1-6 负于巴萨，这一点他自己在反向依据里也写了不宜直接外推。用被自己标注为失真的比分去支撑六成五的大球，属于依据不足，而不是结论被证伪。

Reverse scenario · 总进球停在 2 球或更少：2 球时大球只输一半、小球赢一半，1 球及以下大球全输，大球 65% 明显偏高。 · Reverse scenario probability 45%

5 more challenges (Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Asian handicap)

Detailed verdict for each market

Asian handicap

Alavés +0.5

Pass

Alavés

52%

Why a pass · The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms I. Romero can play, the home side’s existing main creators start together, and the away side’s principal attacking output sources are instead absent, the assessment changes to the home side or pass.

Edge+3.7 pt

Over / under

Over 2.25

Pass

Over

54%

Why a pass · The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms I. Romero is absent and either Y. Fofana or Félix Correia does not start, with the away side’s L. Boyé also not starting, causing the principal attacking output on both sides to weaken simultaneously, the assessment changes to under or pass.

Edge+6.4 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Alavés +0.5 and Over 2.25 come in (full or half win; 14.9% in total), the most likely is 1-2 (5.3%)

  • 1-25%
  • 2-24%
  • 1-32%
Most likely · 1-2

Total goals

Probability

If Alavés +0.5 and Over 2.25 come in (full or half win; 14.9% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (8.6%)

  • 0–1 goals0%
  • 2–3 goals6%
  • 4+ goals9%
Most likely · 4+ goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Summary

Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, while Alavés have averaged 2.2 goals conceded over their last 5 away matches, leaving only a slight lean toward the home side at -0.5. Both teams have averaged 1.8 and 1.7 goals conceded per game respectively over their last 10 matches, creating a lean toward over at 2.25, although actual goals conceded have exceeded expected goals conceded, limiting the strength of the judgment.

  • Asian handicapLean · SevillaStrength 2/5Probability 53%
    • Sevilla recently won 2-0 at home against Osasuna, 1-0 against Valencia and 2-1 against Rayo Vallecano. Each result satisfies the home side’s -0.5 requirement, providing slight support from their home performance.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • Alavés have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last 5 away matches and recently lost 1-6 to Barcelona and 1-2 to Celta. Their recent away attacking and defensive results provide greater support for the home side.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • Sevilla’s most recent 2-0 home win over Osasuna included 7 shots on target against 2, with 1.18 expected goals and 0.79 expected goals conceded. Their advantage was therefore not limited to the scoreline.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01

    Uncertainties · 伤停、停赛与预计首发数据缺失，主队进攻配置能否延续最近主场表现无法核实。 · 阿拉维斯客场1-6负于巴萨对失球均值影响较大，不宜直接将该场防守结果外推到本场。 · 主队倾向幅度有限，概率属于基于现有样本的判断值。

  • Over / underLean · OverStrength 3/5Probability 65%
    • Sevilla have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 10 matches, while Alavés have averaged 1.2 and 1.7 respectively. Both sides’ recent actual attacking and defensive results support the 2.25 over direction.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • In the same-venue split, Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 home matches. Alavés have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last 5 away matches, making the away side’s defensive results an important support for over.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • Sevilla recently lost 1-3 to Getafe, lost 1-4 to Real Madrid and drew 3-3 with Levante; Alavés recently lost 1-6 to Barcelona and 1-2 to Celta. Both sides have had matches in which defensive failures increased the total number of goals.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • The teams have averaged 4.6 and 4.2 shots on target per game respectively over their last 10 matches, so the attacking side has not lacked shots on target. Sevilla have averaged 1.44 expected goals conceded over their last 5 home matches and Alavés 1.65 over their last 5 away matches, also indicating defensive pressure in terms of chance quality.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01

    Uncertainties · 近期大比分包含对阵巴萨、皇马的比赛，对手差异限制直接外推。 · 实际进失球与预期进失球存在偏差，终结效率波动是方向判断的主要风险。 · 概率按给定盘口结算口径表达，不等同于简单统计总进球高于盘口的场次占比。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-1Strength 2/5
    • The most recent meeting at Sevilla’s home venue ended 1-1, providing a direct reference for this match’s scoreline distribution, but the head-to-head sample contains only 2 matches.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, while Alavés have averaged 0.8 goals and 1.17 expected goals per game over their last 5 away matches. Scorelines in which both teams score have a data basis.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • Sevilla have averaged 0.92 expected goals and 1.39 expected goals conceded over their last 10 matches, while Alavés have averaged 1.19 and 1.48 respectively. Chance quality does not show a clear attacking suppression for either side, making 1-1 a low-intensity single-scoreline selection.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01

    Uncertainties · 比分概率分布数据缺失，具体比分的排序只能作低强度判断。 · 单一比分的相对集中不代表小球方向更占优，大小球需考虑其余比分及盘口结算。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 3/5
    • The head-to-head record is 1-1 and 2-1, averaging 2.5 total goals per match, directly supporting 2-3 goals as the distribution center for the goal band.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
    • Sevilla have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 home matches. Alavés have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.65 expected goals conceded over their last 5 away matches. The current attacking and defensive split is relatively compatible with the 2-3-goal band.· Source Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01

    Uncertainties · 完整进球档概率分布数据缺失，无法量化相邻进球档的差距。 · 交锋样本仅2场，进球档判断主要依赖近期攻防拆分。

Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 03:42View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Probability 52% → 51%
    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Probability 51% → 54%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
    • Correct score: Pick 1-2 → 1-1
    • Correct score: Probability 5% → 13%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 0-1
    • Total goals: Probability 8% → 18%
  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 02:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 51%
    • Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
  3. Version 3Price updateNov 06, 2026, 18:51Current

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Tier Lean → Pass
  4. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 16:51View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 04:08View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Over / under

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 04:08 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 06, 2026, 16:51 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 06, 2026, 18:51 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
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