Sevilla vs Alavés
The chief's verdict
Weighing 4 analysts
This match leans toward over. The key is not how many high-scoring matches have recently occurred, but that Sevilla and Alavés have both faced pressure in the quality of defensive chances in the relevant home and away venues, while their principal attacking output sources have not all been covered by the injury lists.
Over / under · Core direction
Over 2.25
Verdict probability
54%
Price at analysis 1.93 (unchanged since Nov 06, 2026, 16:51)
Why
- Sevilla have averaged 1.44 expected goals conceded per game over their last 5 home matches, while Alavés have averaged 1.65 over their last 5 away matches. The extent to which each side has allowed its opponents to create chances provides firmer support for over than a look at scorelines alone.
- L. Boyé has scored 5 goals in his last 10 matches and Angel Pérez has delivered 3 assists, with neither listed as injured, leaving Alavés with clear sources of goals and chance creation.
- Marcao is listed as unavailable for Sevilla, which affects defensive availability and should not be treated alongside organizational or attacking absences as evidence of fewer total goals.
Watch out for
- Sevilla have averaged 1.5 goals per game over their last 10 matches but only 0.92 expected goals. If attacking conversion falls back, the match may not be as open as the recent scorelines suggest.
- Alavés have averaged only 0.8 goals per game over their last 5 away matches. If Sevilla’s doubtful attacking players are also unable to play, the defensive pressure on both sides may not translate into enough goals.
How do I read these numbers?
- 54%: the chief’s final probability that Over 2.25 lands, after weighing every analyst (the quant model gives the same side 52%, a gap of +1.8 pt; main factor: 塞维利亚主场近5场场均预期失球1.44，阿拉维斯客场近5场场均预期失球1.65，双方同场地机会质量均显示防守承压。).
- 51%: the market’s own view, converted from the consensus odds with the margin removed.
- +3.5 pt: the verdict probability minus the market’s; a positive number means we rate this direction higher than the market does.
- Evidence grade 4 of 5 stars: computed by code from the evidence — one star each for a gap big enough for lean, a gap big enough for strong, agreeing with the model, a mostly verified factor ledger and complete data (at least one star). Not a hit rate: four stars does not mean four in five land.
- Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.
Other market verdicts
- Asian handicapAlavés +0.552%Pass
- Correct score1-25%
- Total goals4+ goals9%
Previously recommended / withdrawn
These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.
- Over / underOver 2.25LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Nov 06, 2026, 04:08 · withdrawn or switched Nov 06, 2026, 18:51
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers
Chief verdict, original text
The Asian handicap leans toward Alavés receiving half a goal, mainly because of Sevilla’s personnel losses and weak home chance quality, although Alavés’s defensive limitations away from home constrain the extent of that lean. The over/under leans toward over, based on defensive pressure in the corresponding home and away venues and the absence of several major attacking contributors from the injury lists, while accounting for a possible decline in Sevilla’s attacking conversion.
Weighting notes · Current market pricing is the starting point, with the model used as the primary reference. Because the model already incorporates market information, the two are not treated as independent evidence and added together, and factor magnitudes are used only as approximate adjustments. The Asian handicap retains the data analyst’s evidence for a home result but gives the intelligence analyst’s structured personnel information more scope for adjustment. Regarding the opposing home-team estimate of 50%, the main disagreement concerns the weighting of Sevilla’s personnel losses and home chance quality. The over/under accepts the data analyst’s direction without directly extrapolating the magnitude of recent actual goals scored and conceded; defensive absences are not counted as factors for under. The opposing over estimate of 52% is close to the blended model, and this report makes a slight upward adjustment because of defensive pressure and the continued presence of major attacking contributors on the team lists. Single-source reports and conflicting personnel updates do not drive the main adjustments, and no motivation weighting is added based on league position because both teams are early in the season.
Chief’s factor ledger
Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).
The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)
Asian handicap · Alavés +0.5 · Pass
- +2.0 pt塞维利亚的M. Bueno与Peque列为缺阵，I. Romero列为存疑，主队人员可用性受到影响；存疑不按确定缺阵处理。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
- +1.5 pt塞维利亚主场近5场场均预期进球1.12、预期失球1.44，机会质量不足以支持持续压制客队。Alavés · Match data · Verified
- +1.0 pt阿拉维斯的L. Boyé近10场进球5个，Angel Pérez近10场助攻3次，两人均未列入当前伤停名单。Alavés · Lineups · Verified
- +0.5 pt最近一次同场地交锋中，塞维利亚预期进球0.27、阿拉维斯1.13；交锋样本仅2场，因此只作轻微修正。Alavés · Match data · Verified
- -1.5 pt塞维利亚主场近5场中，面对奥萨苏纳、瓦伦西亚和巴列卡诺均取胜，主场比赛结果支持主队。Sevilla · Match data · Verified
- -1.0 pt阿拉维斯客场近5场场均进球0.8、场均失球2.2，客场实际攻防结果支持主队，但其中包含客战巴萨的失利。Sevilla · Match data · Verified
- -0.5 pt关于Youssouf Fofana恢复完整训练的报道获得两家出版方支持，减轻了主队中场可用性的担忧。Sevilla · News · Verified
- —融合后主队与客队概率四舍五入均为50%，两侧区间均为49%至51%，模型不支持明显偏离市场。Neutral · Quant model · Verified
Over / under · Over 2.25 · Lean
- +2.6 pt塞维利亚主场近5场场均预期失球1.44，阿拉维斯客场近5场场均预期失球1.65，双方同场地机会质量均显示防守承压。Over · Match data · Verified
- +1.7 pt2.25球线上，融合后大球概率52%、小球48%，市场两侧隐含概率均为50%；只计入融合后模型，不另加原模型的支持。Over · Quant model · Verified
- +1.2 ptL. Boyé近10场进球5个、Angel Pérez近10场助攻3次；塞维利亚的Y. Fofana近10场进球1个助攻3次、Félix Correia近10场进球2个助攻2次，这些球员均未列入伤停名单。Over · Lineups · Verified
- +0.5 pt塞维利亚的Marcao列为缺阵，防守人员可用性下降，不把这一项当作压低总进球的理由。Over · Lineups · Verified
- -1.0 pt塞维利亚的M. Bueno与Peque列为缺阵，I. Romero列为存疑，组织与进攻人员可用性对大球形成抵消。Under · Lineups · Verified
- -1.0 pt塞维利亚近10场场均实际进球1.5、预期进球0.92；阿拉维斯客场近5场场均失球2.2包含对巴萨的比赛，近期实际进球表现不宜直接外推。Under · Match data · Verified
Why Over 2.25
Over / under · Reasons, risks and what would flip it
Key evidence 5
- The current total is 2.25, with both over and under priced at 1.94 and implied probabilities of 50% each after removing the margin. The quote provides no one-sided direction, so the match information must be used to adjust the assessment.Market consensus · Nov 05, 2026, 04:01
- The blended over probability is 52%, compared with 65% in the original model. The blended result is used as the primary reference rather than restoring the original model’s magnitude. The further adjustment relative to the market and blended model comes from defensive pressure and the absence of several major attacking contributors from the injury lists, rather than a simple extrapolation from recent high-scoring matches.Quant model · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
- Sevilla have averaged 1.44 expected goals conceded per game over their last 5 home matches, and Alavés have averaged 1.65 over their last 5 away matches, supporting over. However, Sevilla’s actual goals per game over their last 10 matches, 1.5, exceed their 0.92 expected goals, making a decline in attacking conversion an important offset.Match data · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
- L. Boyé has scored 5 goals in his last 10 matches, Angel Pérez has delivered 3 assists, Y. Fofana has scored 1 goal and delivered 3 assists, and Félix Correia has scored 2 goals and delivered 2 assists. None are listed as injured, meaning the existing absences do not cover all major attacking output sources for either side.Lineups · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
- Marcao is listed as unavailable, adversely affecting the home side’s defensive availability. The absences of M. Bueno and Peque and the doubt over I. Romero affect organization and attacking configuration. These effects are offset against each other rather than counting absences in different positions uniformly as factors for under.Lineups · Nov 06, 2026, 04:01
Dissent 3
- The intelligence analyst gives under 52%, primarily due to concerns about Sevilla’s organizational absences and a doubtful forward, but also acknowledges that the injury lists do not cover the principal attacking output sources for either side.Intelligence · Strength 2/5
- The opposing view gives over 52%, arguing that the data analyst’s 65% for over lacks evidence at that magnitude and that the weight assigned to recent actual scoring performance and Alavés’s goals-conceded sample against Barcelona should be reduced.Red team · Strength 4/5
- The data analyst gives over 65%, based on both teams’ last-10-match averages of 1.8 and 1.7 goals conceded and the same-venue defensive data. This report accepts the direction but reduces the weight assigned to extrapolating actual goals scored and conceded.Data analyst · Strength 3/5
Main risks 4
- Sevilla have averaged only 0.92 expected goals per game over their last 10 matches. If actual goals revert toward their chance quality, the support for over will weaken.
- Alavés have averaged 0.8 goals per game over their last 5 away matches. The continued presence of their main attacking contributors on the core list does not mean their attacking conversion will improve in this match.
- Alavés’s away goals-conceded average is affected by the match against Barcelona, so the defensive results against that opponent cannot be fully extrapolated to this match.
- If doubtful attacking players for the home side are absent while the existing creative contributors do not start, the personnel reductions may exceed the offset currently captured in the assessment.
Flip condition
If the official lineup confirms I. Romero is absent and either Y. Fofana or Félix Correia does not start, with the away side’s L. Boyé also not starting, causing the principal attacking output on both sides to weaken simultaneously, the assessment changes to under or pass.
Red team · 6 challenges
The strongest three points are as follows. The data analyst’s 65% probability for over lacks quantitative support: Sevilla have averaged only 0.92 expected goals per game over their last 10 matches, their home expected goals per game of 1.12 is below their 1.44 expected goals conceded, and Alavés’s away average of 2.2 goals conceded is inflated by a 1-6 match; at 2.25, over loses half when exactly 2 goals are scored. The quantitative analyst’s Asian handicap summary says it leans slightly toward the away side receiving half a goal, the opposite sign to that analyst’s own value differential, with the home side’s value differential positive and the two ranges fully overlapping. The intelligence analyst gives the away side 54% while also stating that Sevilla’s principal creators, including Fofana, Correa and Ure, are available, and counts Alavés’s defensive absences as a reason for fewer total goals.
The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Over / under · Challenge strength 4/5
The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)
大球 65%（强度 3）
把大球定在 65%，远高于市场去水后的五成，但数据包中没有与这一幅度相称的依据。2.25 的结算规则是总进球恰好 2 球时大球输一半、小球赢一半，大球要全赢需要 3 球及以上，而这个 65% 没有区分这一步。他引用的比分依据也不稳：塞维利亚近 10 场场均预期进球只有 0.92、场均预期失球 1.39，主场近 5 场场均预期进球 1.12、预期失球 1.44，主场机会质量是负差；阿拉维斯近 5 个客场场均失球 2.2 中含一场 1-6 负于巴萨，这一点他自己在反向依据里也写了不宜直接外推。用被自己标注为失真的比分去支撑六成五的大球，属于依据不足，而不是结论被证伪。
Reverse scenario · 总进球停在 2 球或更少：2 球时大球只输一半、小球赢一半，1 球及以下大球全输，大球 65% 明显偏高。 · Reverse scenario probability 45%
5 more challenges (Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Asian handicap)
Detailed verdict for each market
Asian handicap
Alavés +0.5
Alavés
52%
Why a pass · Market price sits inside the model's error band
Flip condition
If the official lineup confirms I. Romero can play, the home side’s existing main creators start together, and the away side’s principal attacking output sources are instead absent, the assessment changes to the home side or pass.
Correct score
ProbabilityIf Alavés +0.5 and Over 2.25 come in (full or half win; 15.9% in total), the most likely is 1-2 (5.5%)
- 1-25%
- 2-24%
- 1-32%
Total goals
ProbabilityIf Alavés +0.5 and Over 2.25 come in (full or half win; 15.9% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (9.3%)
- 0–1 goals0%
- 2–3 goals7%
- 4+ goals9%
Analyst views
Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)
Analyst consensus
4 analysts: 1 agree · 2 cautious · 1 dissent
- Data analystAgree
- IntelligenceDissent
- MarketCautious
- QuantCautious
- Red team: 6 challenges
Analysis versions (5)
Direction or tier changed
- Asian handicap: Probability 52% → 51%
- Over / under: Pick Over → Under
- Over / under: Probability 51% → 54%
- Over / under: Chief's own confidence 2 → 3
- Correct score: Pick 1-2 → 1-1
- Correct score: Probability 5% → 13%
- Total goals: Pick 4+ → 0-1
- Total goals: Probability 8% → 18%
Direction unchanged
- Over / under: Probability 54% → 51%
- Over / under: Chief's own confidence 3 → 2
Direction or tier changed
- Over / under: Tier Lean → Pass
- Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 16:51Current
Direction unchanged
Direction unchanged
Recommendation history
When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.
Over / under
- First published · Version 1 · Nov 06, 2026, 04:08 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%
- Kept · Version 2 · Nov 06, 2026, 16:51 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%
- Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 06, 2026, 18:51 · Over 2.25 Lean 54%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies