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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Levski Sofia
1:0Fri, Nov 06 01:45Vasil Levski National Stadium
Jagiellonia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:31
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:31

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home team has conceded 0.2 goals per game and kept a clean sheet in 80% of its last 5 home matches, but has averaged only 2.4 shots on target over its last 10 matches. The away team has averaged 1.86 goals per goal over its last 7 matches, but its expected goals is only 0.79 and the statistical coverage is incomplete. Considering the attacking constraints and the defensive counterevidence on both sides, the home team giving half a goal slightly favors the away team receiving the handicap, while 2.25 goals slightly favors the under. The score candidates are 1-1, and the goals band is 2-3, with limited overall conviction.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:31Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:00View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 21:48View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 14:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 01:58View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapLevski Sofia -0.5Win
Over / underOver 2.25Loss
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Levski Sofia -0.5 → win; over/under Over 2.25 → loss; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 06, 2026, 03:51