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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Levski Sofia
1:0Fri, Nov 06 01:45Vasil Levski National Stadium
Jagiellonia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 00:00
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 00:00

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Levski Sofia have conceded 0.2 goals per match over their last 5 home matches, with an 80% clean-sheet rate, but have averaged only 2.4 shots on target over their last 10 matches. Jagiellonia have averaged 1.86 goals per match over their last 7 matches, yet their expected goals figure is only 0.79 and the statistical coverage is incomplete. Considering the attacking constraints and the defensive counterevidence on both sides, the home side receiving a half-goal handicap is a slight lean, while 2.25 goals is a slight lean toward the under. The score candidates are 1-1 and the 2-3 goal band, with limited overall confidence.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:31View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:00Current

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 21:48View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 14:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 01:58View this version

    Direction unchanged