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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Levski Sofia
1:0Fri, Nov 06 01:45Vasil Levski National Stadium
Jagiellonia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 21:48
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 21:48

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Levski Sofia has conceded 0.2 goals per game across its last 5 home matches, but its two most recent home results were 0-1 and 0-0, leaving a slight lean toward Jagiellonia receiving the handicap when Levski Sofia gives 0.5. The over/under 2.5 also leans slightly toward the under, although Jagiellonia averages 1.86 goals per game, and Levski Sofia's 1.63 expected goals conceded is higher than its actual 0.9 goals conceded per game, limiting the strength of either direction.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:31View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:00View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 21:48Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 14:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 01:58View this version

    Direction unchanged