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Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina· Round Clausura - 16Finished
Tigre
1:0Sat, Nov 07 09:00Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna
Sarmiento Junin

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 08:38
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 08:38

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Tigre have averaged 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, below 1.56 expected goals; Sarmiento Junin have averaged 2 goals conceded per game over their last 5 away matches, above 1.02 expected goals conceded. The half-goal line leans toward Sarmiento Junin receiving the handicap, while 2.25 goals is slightly tilted toward the over, although the divergence between actual goals for and against and expected metrics limits the strength of either assessment.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 08:38Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 07:14View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 02:33View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 18:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 09:08View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapSarmiento Junin +0.5Loss
Over / underUnder 2.25Win
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals0-1Hit

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Sarmiento Junin +0.5 → loss; over/under Under 2.25 → win; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 0-1 → hit.

Nov 07, 2026, 11:06