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Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina· Round Clausura - 16Finished
Tigre
1:0Sat, Nov 07 09:00Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna
Sarmiento Junin

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 02:33
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 02:33

Data completeness 70%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Tigre have averaged 0.6 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, below their 1.56 expected goals, so when Tigre give half a goal the analysis tends toward Sarmiento Junin receiving half a goal, although Tigre's chance creation creates a reverse risk. Sarmiento Junin have averaged 1.4 goals and 2 goals conceded per game over their last 5 away matches, supporting an over lean on 2 goals, but their 1.02 projected goals conceded is low and actual goals conceded have been higher, so they should not be extrapolated directly.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 08:38View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 07:14View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 02:33Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 18:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 09:08View this version

    Direction unchanged