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Roma vs Sassuolo

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Roma
3:0Sun, Nov 08 03:45Stadio Olimpico
Sassuolo

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:25
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:25

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Roma have averaged 3 goals in their last 5 home matches, while Sassuolo have averaged 2.4 goals conceded in their last 5 away matches, showing a slight lean toward Roma -1.5 and over 3.5. Roma have averaged 2.7 goals in their last 10 matches, above their 2.01 expected goals, while Sassuolo have averaged 2.6 goals conceded, above their 1.8 expected goals conceded; efficiency variation limits the strength of the assessment. The single-score lean is 2-1, while the goals-band lean is 4+.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 03:25Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 03:04View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 01:54View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 07, 2026, 20:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 03:58View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

3 - 090 minutes 3-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapRoma -1.5Win
Over / underUnder 3.5Win
Correct score2-0Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 3-0. Asian handicap Roma -1.5 → win; over/under Under 3.5 → win; correct score 2-0 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 08, 2026, 05:51