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Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan· Round Regular Season - 28Finished
Hammarby FF
4:1Sat, Nov 07 02:003Arena
IF Elfsborg

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 01:42
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 01:42

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home side has averaged 2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per home match over the last 5; the away side has averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per away match over the last 5. The home side won all of the last 3 head-to-head meetings, with an average of 2.67 total goals. A goal-and-a-half handicap leans toward the away side receiving, and a 3-goal over/under line leans under, but the gap between the home side's 2.38 expected goals and actual 1.6 goals per match limits the strength of the total-goals judgment.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 01:42Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 00:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 20:20View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 02:15View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

4 - 190 minutes 4-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapIF Elfsborg +1.5Loss
Over / underUnder 3Loss
Correct score1-0Miss
Total goals0-1Miss

Review

Final score 4-1. Asian handicap IF Elfsborg +1.5 → loss; over/under Under 3 → loss; correct score 1-0 → miss; total goals 0-1 → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 04:36