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Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan· Round Regular Season - 28Finished
Hammarby FF
4:1Sat, Nov 07 02:003Arena
IF Elfsborg

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 20:20
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 20:20

Data completeness 70%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Hammarby FF has averaged 2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over its last 5 home matches, with 1.52 expected goals conceded, so its low goals-conceded record should not be extrapolated directly. IF Elfsborg has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over its last 5 away matches, creating a preference for the away side to receive the handicap when the home side is giving -1.25. There is a slight under lean at the 3-goal total, but Elfsborg’s recent 2-2 away result and Hammarby FF’s 2.38 expected goals create countervailing factors. The score and goals bands lean toward 2-1 and 2-3 goals, respectively.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 01:42View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 00:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 20:20Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 02:15View this version

    Direction unchanged