THE OPEN RECORD
Platform record
Every handicap / spread and total call, including misses and passes, settled on the last pre-kick-off version
Last 90 days · 334 samples (reference opinions: pass verdicts where the chief and the model agree, on the favourite side, with a gap of at least 1 point; not picks)
Hit rate (final version)
49.0%
334 samples · 95% interval 43.3%–54.7%
Hit rate (first shown)
49.3%
306 samples · 95% interval 43.6%–55.0%
Same-line CLV (final)
-0.1 pt
334 with a same-line closing price
Reference opinions are not picks. The hit rate is computed twice: final version = the reference opinions in the last version before kick-off, settled on the result; first shown = the side and line the first time the market was shown as a reference opinion, settled from the score. Reference opinions never enter the picks hit rate or the day-by-day report.
How it is counted
Hit rate = (hits + ½ × half wins) ÷ (hits + misses + ½ × half wins + ½ × half losses)
- Win counts as 1 hit
- Half win counts as ½ hit
- Loss counts as 1 miss
- Half loss counts as ½ miss
- Push not counted
- Void not counted
The current and longest streaks run in kick-off order: a half win counts as a hit, a half loss as a miss, and pushes and voids are skipped.
Pass calls stay out of the hit rate but are listed one by one under History on the records page. The 95% interval next to the hit rate is a Wilson interval that counts half wins and half losses as half a call, like the hit rate itself; the fewer the calls, the wider it gets.
Reference tab: the final-version reading takes the reference opinions in the last version before kick-off and counts the settled result; the first-shown reading takes the side and line the first time this market was shown as a reference opinion and settles it from the score; pushes and voids count in neither.
The day-by-day report lists picks only; reference opinions stay out of it
History 334 records after filtering
- Oct 26, 2026LossLillestromvsBrannOver / under · Under 3.5 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line Under 3.5
- Oct 25, 2026Half lossSparta RotterdamvsAjaxAsian handicap · Ajax -1.25 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Ajax -1.25
- Oct 25, 2026LossSparta RotterdamvsAjaxOver / under · Over 3.5 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 3.5
- Oct 25, 2026WinEstorilvsMoreirenseAsian handicap · Moreirense +0.75 · 56%Reference opinion
Closing main line Moreirense +0.75
- Oct 25, 2026LossEstorilvsMoreirenseOver / under · Under 2.5 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Under 2.5
- Oct 25, 2026LossClub Brugge KVvsSt. TruidenAsian handicap · Club Brugge KV -1.5 · 56%Reference opinion
Closing main line Club Brugge KV -1.5
- Oct 25, 2026WinAC HorsensvsSonderjyskeAsian handicap · AC Horsens 0 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line AC Horsens 0
- Oct 25, 2026LossHoffenheimvsLeverkusenAsian handicap · Leverkusen -0.25 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Leverkusen -0.25
- Oct 25, 2026WinLiverpoolvsBrightonOver / under · Under 3.25 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Under 3 · Line moved
- Oct 25, 2026LossPalacevsNewcastleOver / under · Over 2.75 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 2.75
- Oct 25, 2026WinMonacovsLilleOver / under · Under 2.75 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Under 2.75
- Oct 25, 2026LossSturm GrazvsRiedAsian handicap · Sturm Graz -0.75 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line Sturm Graz -0.75
- Oct 25, 2026WinVikingvsTromsoAsian handicap · Viking -1 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Viking -1
- Oct 25, 2026LossAthleticvsGetafeAsian handicap · Getafe +1 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Getafe +1
- Oct 25, 2026WinHJK HelsinkivsKuPSAsian handicap · KuPS +0.75 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line KuPS +0.75
- Oct 25, 2026WinHJK HelsinkivsKuPSOver / under · Over 2.75 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 2.75
- Oct 25, 2026WinGaisvsIFK GoteborgOver / under · Under 2.75 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Under 2.75
- Oct 25, 2026PushHibernianvsCelticOver / under · Over 3 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 3
- Oct 25, 2026Half winNagoya GrampusvsYokohama F. MarinosAsian handicap · Yokohama F. Marinos +0.25 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line Yokohama F. Marinos +0.25
- Oct 25, 2026WinChapecoense-scvsFluminenseOver / under · Over 2.5 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 2.5
- Oct 25, 2026WinPalmeirasvsRB BragantinoAsian handicap · Palmeiras -1 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Palmeiras -1
- Oct 25, 2026LossInternacionalvsBotafogoAsian handicap · Botafogo +0.5 · 55%Reference opinion
Closing main line Botafogo +0.5
- Oct 25, 2026PushVitoriavsAtletico ParanaenseAsian handicap · Atletico Paranaense 0 · 52%Reference opinion
Closing main line Atletico Paranaense 0
- Oct 25, 2026Half winLensvsParis FCOver / under · Over 2.75 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 2.75
- Oct 25, 2026LossBSC Young BoysvsFC ST. GallenOver / under · Over 3.75 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 3.75
- Oct 25, 2026Half lossBanfieldvsLanusAsian handicap · Lanus -0.25 · 56%Reference opinion
Closing main line Lanus -0.25
- Oct 25, 2026LossChelseavsSpursAsian handicap · Chelsea -0.5 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Chelsea -0.5
- Oct 25, 2026Half lossDortmundvsFrankfurtAsian handicap · Dortmund -1.25 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Dortmund -1.25
- Oct 25, 2026Half lossFC ZurichvsFC LuzernOver / under · Over 3.25 · 54%Reference opinion
Closing main line Over 3.25
- Oct 25, 2026WinServette FCvsFC VaduzAsian handicap · Servette FC -0.25 · 53%Reference opinion
Closing main line Servette FC -0.25
| Date | Matches | Pick | Probability | Tier | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | Lillestrom vs Brann | Over / under · Under 3.5 Closing main line Under 3.5 | 55% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax | Asian handicap · Ajax -1.25 Closing main line Ajax -1.25 | 53% | Reference opinion | Half loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax | Over / under · Over 3.5 Closing main line Over 3.5 | 55% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Estoril vs Moreirense | Asian handicap · Moreirense +0.75 Closing main line Moreirense +0.75 | 56% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Estoril vs Moreirense | Over / under · Under 2.5 Closing main line Under 2.5 | 54% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden | Asian handicap · Club Brugge KV -1.5 Closing main line Club Brugge KV -1.5 | 56% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske | Asian handicap · AC Horsens 0 Closing main line AC Horsens 0 | 55% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen | Asian handicap · Leverkusen -0.25 Closing main line Leverkusen -0.25 | 54% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Liverpool vs Brighton | Over / under · Under 3.25 Closing main line Under 3 · Line moved | 54% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Palace vs Newcastle | Over / under · Over 2.75 Closing main line Over 2.75 | 55% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Monaco vs Lille | Over / under · Under 2.75 Closing main line Under 2.75 | 53% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sturm Graz vs Ried | Asian handicap · Sturm Graz -0.75 Closing main line Sturm Graz -0.75 | 55% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Viking vs Tromso | Asian handicap · Viking -1 Closing main line Viking -1 | 53% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Athletic vs Getafe | Asian handicap · Getafe +1 Closing main line Getafe +1 | 53% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | HJK Helsinki vs KuPS | Asian handicap · KuPS +0.75 Closing main line KuPS +0.75 | 54% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | HJK Helsinki vs KuPS | Over / under · Over 2.75 Closing main line Over 2.75 | 53% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Gais vs IFK Goteborg | Over / under · Under 2.75 Closing main line Under 2.75 | 54% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Hibernian vs Celtic | Over / under · Over 3 Closing main line Over 3 | 54% | Reference opinion | Push |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos | Asian handicap · Yokohama F. Marinos +0.25 Closing main line Yokohama F. Marinos +0.25 | 55% | Reference opinion | Half win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense | Over / under · Over 2.5 Closing main line Over 2.5 | 54% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino | Asian handicap · Palmeiras -1 Closing main line Palmeiras -1 | 54% | Reference opinion | Win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Internacional vs Botafogo | Asian handicap · Botafogo +0.5 Closing main line Botafogo +0.5 | 55% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense | Asian handicap · Atletico Paranaense 0 Closing main line Atletico Paranaense 0 | 52% | Reference opinion | Push |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Lens vs Paris FC | Over / under · Over 2.75 Closing main line Over 2.75 | 54% | Reference opinion | Half win |
| Oct 25, 2026 | BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen | Over / under · Over 3.75 Closing main line Over 3.75 | 53% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Banfield vs Lanus | Asian handicap · Lanus -0.25 Closing main line Lanus -0.25 | 56% | Reference opinion | Half loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Chelsea vs Spurs | Asian handicap · Chelsea -0.5 Closing main line Chelsea -0.5 | 54% | Reference opinion | Loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Dortmund vs Frankfurt | Asian handicap · Dortmund -1.25 Closing main line Dortmund -1.25 | 53% | Reference opinion | Half loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Zurich vs FC Luzern | Over / under · Over 3.25 Closing main line Over 3.25 | 54% | Reference opinion | Half loss |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Servette FC vs FC Vaduz | Asian handicap · Servette FC -0.25 Closing main line Servette FC -0.25 | 53% | Reference opinion | Win |