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THE OPEN RECORD

Platform record

Every handicap / spread and total call, including misses and passes, settled on the last pre-kick-off version

PicksReference
All sportsFootballBasketball
30 days90 days180 days

Last 90 days · 334 samples (reference opinions: pass verdicts where the chief and the model agree, on the favourite side, with a gap of at least 1 point; not picks)

Hit rate (final version)

49.0%

334 samples · 95% interval 43.3%–54.7%

Hit rate (first shown)

49.3%

306 samples · 95% interval 43.6%–55.0%

Same-line CLV (final)

-0.1 pt

334 with a same-line closing price

Reference opinions are not picks. The hit rate is computed twice: final version = the reference opinions in the last version before kick-off, settled on the result; first shown = the side and line the first time the market was shown as a reference opinion, settled from the score. Reference opinions never enter the picks hit rate or the day-by-day report.

How it is counted

Hit rate = (hits + ½ × half wins) ÷ (hits + misses + ½ × half wins + ½ × half losses)

  • Win counts as 1 hit
  • Half win counts as ½ hit
  • Loss counts as 1 miss
  • Half loss counts as ½ miss
  • Push not counted
  • Void not counted

The current and longest streaks run in kick-off order: a half win counts as a hit, a half loss as a miss, and pushes and voids are skipped.

Pass calls stay out of the hit rate but are listed one by one under History on the records page. The 95% interval next to the hit rate is a Wilson interval that counts half wins and half losses as half a call, like the hit rate itself; the fewer the calls, the wider it gets.

Reference tab: the final-version reading takes the reference opinions in the last version before kick-off and counts the settled result; the first-shown reading takes the side and line the first time this market was shown as a reference opinion and settles it from the score; pushes and voids count in neither.

The day-by-day report lists picks only; reference opinions stay out of it

History 334 records after filtering