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Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Primeira Liga· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Sporting CP
1:0Sun, Nov 08 04:30Estádio José Alvalade
Moreirense

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 15:51
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 15:51

Data completeness 75%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Sporting CP has averaged 2.52 expected goals and 0.83 expected goals conceded per match over its last 5 home matches, but has actually conceded 1.6 per match; Moreirense has averaged 0.7 expected goals over its last 5 away matches. Sporting CP leads in opportunity quality, although that advantage has not consistently translated into the scoreline. The analysis leans toward Moreirense receiving the handicap, with a slight preference for the under at 3.25, while the score and goals-band distributions lean toward 2-0 and 2-3 goals.

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Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 04:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:38View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 21:50View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 18:48View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 15:51Current

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:48View this version

    Direction unchanged