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Sporting CP vs Moreirense

Primeira Liga· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Sporting CP
1:0Sun, Nov 08 04:30Estádio José Alvalade
Moreirense

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 1 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 04:48
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Market verdicts

Version 1 · Initial (pre-match) · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 04:48

Data completeness 75%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Sporting CP have averaged 2.52 expected goals and 0.83 expected goals conceded per game over their last 5 home matches, but have actually conceded 1.6 per game; Moreirense have averaged 0.7 expected goals per game over their last 5 away matches, so the home side leads on chance quality even though that advantage has not consistently converted into scorelines. Leaning toward Moreirense taking the handicap, with a slight lean to the under at 3.25, and the score and goals-band leaning to 2-0 and 2-3 goals respectively.

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Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 04:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:38View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 21:50View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 18:48View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 15:51View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:48Current

    Direction unchanged