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Göztepe vs Başakşehir

Süper Lig· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Göztepe
1:2Sun, Nov 08 00:00Gursel Aksel Stadium
Başakşehir

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  • Asian handicapLean
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • 4 analysts: 1 agree · 1 cautious · 2 dissent
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 16:12
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 16:12

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapLean
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home side’s last 5 matches at the same venue produced 2.39 expected goals and 1.15 expected goals conceded, compared with 1.18 and 1.89 for the away side. Combined with the away side’s recent low output, this slightly favors the home side at -0.5. A total of 3 slightly favors the under, but Göztepe’s 2.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match over its last 10 matches, together with Başakşehir’s recent 5-2 score, limit the strength of the over/under assessment.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 23:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 23:29View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 22:19View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 16:12Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 00:17View this version

    Direction unchanged