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Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

Austrian Bundesliga· Round Regular Season - 12Finished
Austria Lustenau
2:1Sun, Nov 08 00:00Planet Pure Stadion
Grazer AK

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 23:41
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 23:41

Data completeness 95%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home side has averaged 2.8 goals conceded and 2.54 expected goals conceded per game over its last 10 matches, while the away side has averaged 3.4 goals conceded and 2.48 expected goals conceded over its last 5 away matches. The defensive risk supports a lean toward the over on 2.75, but both teams’ attacking output is limited, so the strength should be moderate. At the Asian handicap, the home side’s venue-based performance and the away side’s overall defensive data offset one another, resulting in a neutral view. The correct-score and total-goals bands carry low-strength leans toward 1-1 and 2-3 goals, respectively.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 3Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 23:41Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 2Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 22:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 00:19View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 190 minutes 2-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAustria Lustenau 0Win
Over / underUnder 2.75Half loss
Correct score1-0Miss
Total goals0-1Miss

Review

Final score 2-1. Asian handicap Austria Lustenau 0 → win; over/under Under 2.75 → half loss; correct score 1-0 → miss; total goals 0-1 → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 02:06