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Dundee Utd vs Motherwell

Scottish Premiership· Round Regular Season - 13Finished
Dundee Utd
1:1Sat, Nov 07 23:00CalForth Construction Arena
Motherwell

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 22:40
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 22:40

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Dundee Utd's recent home matches average 1.68 expected goals, and Motherwell's recent away matches average 2.12 expected goals conceded and 2.2 actual goals conceded, supporting a mild lean toward the home side at -0.25 and the over on the 3-goal line. Historical head-to-head matches averaged only 1.75 total goals, and Dundee Utd has 0 head-to-head wins, which clearly constrains the above directions, so the strength of judgment is not raised on any market.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 22:40Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 21:24View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:19View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 23:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 190 minutes 1-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapMotherwell +0.25Half win
Over / underUnder 3Win
Correct score1-1Hit
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 1-1. Asian handicap Motherwell +0.25 → half win; over/under Under 3 → win; correct score 1-1 → hit; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 08, 2026, 01:06