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Dundee Utd vs Motherwell

Scottish Premiership· Round Regular Season - 13Finished
Dundee Utd
1:1Sat, Nov 07 23:00CalForth Construction Arena
Motherwell

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 14:19
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 14:19

Data completeness 75%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Over Dundee Utd's last 5 home matches, it has averaged 1.68 expected goals per game. Over Motherwell's last 5 away matches, it has averaged 2.12 expected goals conceded and 2.2 actual goals conceded per game. Both Dundee Utd -0.25 and over 3 total goals receive slight support. Dundee Utd won none of the last 4 head-to-head meetings, which averaged 1.75 total goals per game and provides an important counterpoint, so both directional assessments retain a low strength.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 22:40View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 21:24View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:19Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 23:18View this version

    Direction unchanged