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Osasuna vs Athletic Club

La Liga· Round Regular Season - 12Finished
Osasuna
1:1Sun, Nov 08 01:30Estadio El Sadar
Athletic

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 18:59
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 18:59

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Osasuna has averaged 0.8 goals and 0.6 goals conceded per game over its last 5 home matches, while Athletic Club has averaged 1 goal and 1.8 goals conceded per game over its last 5 away matches. The two head-to-head meetings finished 1-0 and 1-1, averaging 1.5 total goals, which slightly favors the home side receiving the handicap and the under. However, Athletic Club's 1.6 expected goals per game over its last 10 matches and Osasuna's 2.2 goals conceded per game limit confidence.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 01:12View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 23:55View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 18:59Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 01:46View this version

    Direction unchanged