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Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Premier League· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
Forest
3:1Sun, Nov 08 01:30City Ground
Man City

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 01:12
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 01:12

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Forest scored only 1 goal in its last 5 home matches and was held scoreless in 4. The gap between 1.04 expected goals and 0.20 actual goals per match at home is substantial, while Manchester City averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded away and kept a clean sheet in 60% of matches. The data supports Forest receiving half a goal and fewer than 3 total goals, with the score distribution leaning toward a narrow Manchester City win.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 01:12Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 00:49View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 23:54View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 07, 2026, 23:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 01:44View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

3 - 190 minutes 3-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapMan City -0.75Loss
Over / underUnder 2.75Loss
Correct score0-2Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 3-1. Asian handicap Man City -0.75 → loss; over/under Under 2.75 → loss; correct score 0-2 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 03:36