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Fulham vs Newcastle United

Premier League· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
Fulham
1:1Sat, Nov 07 23:00Craven Cottage
Newcastle

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 22:44
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 22:44

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Over the last 5 home matches, the home team averaged 1.92 expected goals and 1.17 expected goals conceded, while the away team averaged 0.95 and 1.61 over its last 5 away matches, providing substantial support for the home side's half-goal handicap. The home team's actual goals per match over the last 10 matches were 1.1, below 1.55 expected goals per match. Recent low-scoring matches and chance quality therefore point in different directions, resulting in only a slight lean toward the under at 2.75 goals. All of these data come from stats:api_sports, with collection times listed for each item of evidence.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 22:44Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 21:24View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 00:24View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 23:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 190 minutes 1-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapFulham -0.5Loss
Over / underUnder 2.75Win
Correct score1-0Miss
Total goals0-1Miss

Review

Final score 1-1. Asian handicap Fulham -0.5 → loss; over/under Under 2.75 → win; correct score 1-0 → miss; total goals 0-1 → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 01:06