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Venezia vs Udinese

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Venezia
2:1Sat, Nov 07 03:45Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
Udinese

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 6 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 03:23
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Market verdicts

Version 6 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 03:23

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Venezia has averaged only 0.6 goals over the last 10 matches against 1.47 expected goals, so its weak attacking conversion does not support the home side giving 0.25, creating a slight lean toward Udinese +0.25. Over the last 10 matches, the teams have averaged 2.04 and 2.27 expected goals conceded respectively, and the defensive pressure supports a slight lean toward over 2.5, although low goal conversion limits the strength of that assessment.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 03:23Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 02:10View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 01:44View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 19:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 03:57View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 190 minutes 2-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapUdinese +0.25Loss
Over / underUnder 2.5Loss
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 2-1. Asian handicap Udinese +0.25 → loss; over/under Under 2.5 → loss; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 07, 2026, 05:51