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Venezia vs Udinese

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Venezia
2:1Sat, Nov 07 03:45Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
Udinese

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 01:44
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 01:44

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Venezia have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2 conceded per game over their last 10 matches, while Udinese have averaged 1.1 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over their last 10 matches. Venezia have averaged 1.39 expected goals and 2.41 expected goals conceded over their last 5 home matches, and Udinese have averaged 0.88 expected goals and 2.02 expected goals conceded over their last 5 away matches. Based on the combination of Venezia's low actual scoring and the high quality of chances allowed by both defenses, the quarter-goal line slightly favors Udinese, while the 2.5 total points line slightly favors the under. The score and goals bands are low-intensity leanings toward 1-1 and 2-3 goals.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 03:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 02:10View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 01:44Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 19:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 03:57View this version

    Direction unchanged