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Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

Eredivisie· Round Regular Season - 12Finished
Willem II
1:1Sat, Nov 07 03:00Koning Willem II Stadion
PEC Zwolle

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 18:19
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 18:19

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Willem II has averaged 3.5 goals conceded and 2.29 expected goals conceded over its last 10 matches, with 3.2 goals conceded per match over its last 5 home matches. This is the main basis for the current lean toward PEC Zwolle -0.25 and the over at a 3 total-goals line. PEC Zwolle has averaged only 0.94 expected goals over its last 5 away matches, and the home team’s actual goals conceded are clearly higher than its expected goals conceded, so the over receives only a weak lean. The correct-score and total-goals selections are low-intensity choices of 1-1 and 2-3 goals, respectively.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 02:53View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 02:39View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 18:19Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 03:10View this version

    Direction unchanged