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Vitoria vs Fluminense

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Vitoria
0:3Sat, Nov 07 07:00Barradao
Fluminense

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 01:14
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 01:14

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Vitoria has averaged 1.4 goals and conceded 1.2 per match in its last 5 home matches, while Fluminense has averaged 1.6 goals and conceded 2 per match in its last 5 away matches. The current quarter-goal handicap for Vitoria (+0.25), with Fluminense giving a quarter-goal handicap, slightly favors the home side, while the 2.25 over/under line slightly favors the over. Fluminense has averaged 1.8 goals per match over its last 10 matches, above 1.22 expected goals, but the teams' home-and-away average expected goals of 1.26 and 1.2 respectively limit the strength of those tendencies.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 06:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 05:12View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Price updateNov 07, 2026, 04:01View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 01:14Current

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 07:07View this version

    Direction unchanged