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Sturm Graz vs Celje

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Sturm Graz
2:3Fri, Nov 06 04:00Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Celje

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 1 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 04:11
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Market verdicts

Version 1 · Initial (pre-match) · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 04:11

Data completeness 65%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Over Sturm Graz’s last 5 home matches, it has averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Celje has conceded 2 goals per match over its last 5 away matches, making home -1 only a slight lean. Sturm Graz’s 2.59 home expected goals and Celje’s 1.93 away expected goals conceded support the over on the 3-goal line, but Celje’s 0.9 away expected goals and Sturm Graz’s home defensive record constrain the view; the score and goal-band views lean toward 2-1 and 2-3 goals, respectively.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 03:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 02:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 17:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 04:11Current

    Direction unchanged