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Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Celta
1:2Fri, Nov 06 04:00Municipal de Balaídos
Union St. Gilloise

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 03:45
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 03:45

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Union St. Gilloise have averaged 2.13 expected goals and 8.7 shots on target over their last 10 matches, both above Celta Vigo’s 1.22 and 3.5, producing a lean toward the visitors when the home team gives 0.25 goals. The visitors’ 2.6 goals per match over their last 5 away fixtures supports over at the 2.5-goal line, but relatively low expected goals conceded for both sides and the gap between the visitors’ actual goals and expected goals limit the strength of the assessment.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 03:45Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 02:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 20:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 04:12View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 290 minutes 1-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapUnion St. Gilloise +0.25Win
Over / underOver 2.5Win
Correct score1-2Hit
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-2. Asian handicap Union St. Gilloise +0.25 → win; over/under Over 2.5 → win; correct score 1-2 → hit; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 06, 2026, 06:06