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Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Celta
1:2Fri, Nov 06 04:00Municipal de Balaídos
Union St. Gilloise

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 1 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 04:12
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Market verdicts

Version 1 · Initial (pre-match) · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 04:12

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Union St. Gilloise has averaged 2.9 goals, 2.13 expected goals, and 8.7 shots on target over its last 10 matches, compared with 1.2, 1.22, and 3.5 for Celta Vigo. This attacking advantage supports Union St. Gilloise receiving a quarter-goal handicap. The over/under leans slightly toward over on the 2.5 line, but the relevant venue samples show the teams conceding only 0.8 and 0.6 per match, while Union St. Gilloise has scored more than expected, limiting the strength of that view.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 03:45View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 02:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 20:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 04:12Current

    Direction unchanged