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Celtic vs Beşiktaş

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Celtic
3:2Fri, Nov 06 04:00Celtic Park
Beşiktaş

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 03:44
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 03:44

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

In Celtic's last 5 home matches, they averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded; in Beşiktaş's last 5 away matches, they averaged 1.8 scored and 2 conceded. This slightly favours Celtic receiving 0.25 and the over 3.25. The teams' expected goals conceded at the relevant venues were 1.15 and 1.36 respectively, both below their actual goals-conceded figures. Recent goals-conceded figures should therefore not be extrapolated directly, and both directional views retain relatively low conviction.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 03:44Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 03:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 02:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 14:45View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 04:12View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

3 - 290 minutes 3-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapCeltic +0.25Win
Over / underUnder 3.25Loss
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 3-2. Asian handicap Celtic +0.25 → win; over/under Under 3.25 → loss; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 06, 2026, 06:06