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AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
AZ Alkmaar
1:2Fri, Nov 06 04:00AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
Juventus

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 03:15
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 03:15

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

AZ Alkmaar has averaged 2.22 expected goals per game in its last 5 home matches, while Juventus has averaged 1.4 goals and 1.4 goals conceded per game in its last 5 away matches, making the home side favored when receiving a half-goal. Juventus has averaged 0.92 expected goals conceded over its last 10 matches but 1.2 actual goals conceded per game, indicating variation in defensive outcomes. The 2.75 line therefore leans only slightly toward the under, with the score and goal bands leaning toward 1-1 and 2-3 goals.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 03:15Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 21:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 04:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 290 minutes 1-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAZ Alkmaar +0.25Loss
Over / underUnder 2.75Half loss
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 1-2. Asian handicap AZ Alkmaar +0.25 → loss; over/under Under 2.75 → half loss; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 06, 2026, 06:06