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AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
AZ Alkmaar
1:2Fri, Nov 06 04:00AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
Juventus

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 21:36
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Price update · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 21:36

Data completeness 73%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

AZ Alkmaar has averaged 2.22 expected goals per match in its last 5 home matches, while Juventus has averaged 1.4 goals and 1.4 goals conceded per match in its last 5 away matches, making the +0.5 line more favorable toward the home side. Juventus has averaged 0.92 expected goals conceded in its last 10 matches but 1.2 actual goals conceded per match, showing some variation in defensive outcomes. The 2.75 line therefore has only a slight under lean, with the score and goals-band leaning toward 1-1 and 2-3 goals respectively.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 03:15View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 21:36Current

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 04:13View this version

    Direction unchanged