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AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Free todayFinished
Milan
0:2Fri, Nov 06 01:45San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Ferencvarosi TC
FreeVersion 6 · Update (2h before) · Nov 06, 2026, 00:01Data completeness 78%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

The report favors Ferencvarosi TC +1.5. AC Milan are missing both a goalkeeper and a defender, while Ferencvarosi have also scored consistently on their recent away trips. The conditions for the home side to open a sizeable gap are therefore not fully in place.

Asian handicap · Core direction

Ferencvarosi TC +1.5

Verdict probability

54%

LeanEdge+2.2 ptλ-blended model probability 54%

Price at analysis 1.88 (unchanged since Nov 05, 2026, 23:36)

Line at analysis: Ferencvarosi TC +1.5Closing main line: Ferencvarosi TC +1.25 · price 1.96 (Nov 06, 2026, 01:36)The line has moved; this call only holds at Ferencvarosi TC +1.5

Why

  1. AC Milan's list shows Mike Maignan, Matteo Gabbia and Fikayo Tomori as unavailable, reducing the available goalkeeper and defender options and making it harder for the home side to establish and sustain a clear advantage.
  2. Ferencvarosi have averaged 1.8 goals and 0.8 goals conceded per game in their last 5 away matches, providing both an attacking response and a sample that supports limiting goals conceded, backing the away side at +1.5.

Watch out for

  • AC Milan have averaged 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 home matches and still have scoring sources such as Rabiot and Pulisic, so their defensive absences should not be interpreted as removing their ability to open a sizeable gap.
  • Ferencvarosi striker Kovačević is doubtful, and their recent away opponents were also different from AC Milan. If the attacking personnel are unavailable, the relevance of the away data will decline.
How do I read these numbers?
  • 54%: the chief’s final probability that Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 lands, after weighing every analyst (the quant model gives the same side 54%, a gap of +0.3 pt; main factor: 融合后模型给客队受让球半54%、主队46%；融合权重为0.1，模型已经吸收市场信息，不将其作为独立于市场的完整证据重复加权。).
  • 52%: the market’s own view, converted from the consensus odds with the margin removed.
  • +2.2 pt: the verdict probability minus the market’s; a positive number means we rate this direction higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade 3 of 5 stars: computed by code from the evidence — one star each for a gap big enough for lean, a gap big enough for strong, agreeing with the model, a mostly verified factor ledger and complete data (at least one star). Not a hit rate: four stars does not mean four in five land.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Other market verdicts

  • Over / underUnder 3.2552%PassLine moved
  • Correct score2-110%
  • Total goals2–3 goals24%
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap favors Ferencvarosi TC +1.5, primarily because of its away scoring and conceding record and AC Milan's defensive absences. The over/under leans slightly under 3.25, supported by Ferencvarosi's defensive results, although the opposing effects of defensive absences and attacking personnel constraints make the assessment ambiguous.

Weighting notes · The market is the starting point, and the fusion model is counted once without reweighting information already absorbed by the market. The reference weights are 1 for the data analyst, 0.85 for the intel analyst, 0.9 for the market analyst and 1 for the quant analyst, but their views are not mechanically averaged. For the Asian handicap, the counterargument is adopted that Ferencvarosi's home handicap record cannot be extrapolated and that schedule coverage does not equal a complete break; the away-team view is supported by structured defensive absences and away data, while AC Milan's attack and Ferencvarosi's personnel provide contrary evidence. For the over/under, the over objections from the data and intel analysts are retained because the key effects of defensive absences and attacking personnel constraints conflict. The assessment is based only on facts verifiable for this match; recrawling data is not treated as new injury information, a change in content or grounds for revising the conclusion.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 · Lean

  • +2.0 pt融合后模型给客队受让球半54%、主队46%；融合权重为0.1，模型已经吸收市场信息，不将其作为独立于市场的完整证据重复加权。Ferencvarosi TC · Quant model · Verified
  • +1.5 pt米兰名单列出M. Maignan（GK）因Red Card缺阵，M. Gabbia（DF）因Thigh Injury缺阵，F. Tomori（DF）因Muscle Injury缺阵，后场可用选择减少支持客队受让。Ferencvarosi TC · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.5 pt费伦茨瓦罗斯客场近5场场均进球1.8、场均失球0.8，客场得失球表现支持客队受让，但不把其主场让球记录直接外推到本场。Ferencvarosi TC · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt米兰主场近5场场均进球2.2、预期进球1.57，场均失球1.8、预期失球1.23；主场进攻产出及低于实际失球的预期失球，构成主队让球方向的反证。Milan · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt费伦茨瓦罗斯名单列出E. Botka（DF）因Inactive缺阵、B. Nagy（DF）因Off the roster缺阵，F. Kovacevic（FW）因Injury处于伤疑状态，限制客队阵容完整性。Milan · Lineups · Verified
  • —当前主队让球半（-1.5），客队受让球半，主队水位2.02、客队1.88，去水隐含主队48%、客队52%；以此作为起点，不将报价本身另算为客队实力证据。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified
  • —米兰积3分、费伦茨瓦罗斯积9分，双方仍有晋级目标，没有单方需求差异；客队上一场接入记录距今14天，不等于已经确认其完整休整。Neutral · Match data · Verified

Over / under · Under 3.25 · Pass

  • +2.0 pt费伦茨瓦罗斯近10场场均失球0.7、客场近5场场均失球0.8，防守结果支持小球，但对手构成限制外推。Under · Match data · Verified
  • +1.5 pt米兰S. Chukwueze（MF）、R. Loftus-Cheek（MF）、A. Saelemaekers（MF）分别因Hip Injury、Thigh Injury、Ankle Injury缺阵，中场可用选择减少，对小球形成修正。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.0 pt3.25线上融合后模型给小球51%、大球49%，模型略偏小球，但已融合市场信息，仅作有限修正。Under · Quant model · Verified
  • +0.5 pt费伦茨瓦罗斯F. Kovacevic（FW）因Injury处于伤疑状态，可能削弱客队进攻完整性，但尚未确认缺阵，仅作小幅修正。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • -2.0 pt米兰M. Maignan（GK）因Red Card缺阵，M. Gabbia（DF）因Thigh Injury缺阵，F. Tomori（DF）因Muscle Injury缺阵，后场可用性下降支持大球。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • -0.5 pt米兰主场近5场场均进球2.2、场均失球1.8，实际得失球产出支持大球，不能仅凭客队防守结果否定主队比赛的进球波动。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -0.5 pt费伦茨瓦罗斯E. Botka（DF）因Inactive缺阵、B. Nagy（DF）因Off the roster缺阵，客队后场选择减少，对大球提供有限支持。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • —当前大小球3.25，大球水位1.96、小球1.93，去水隐含各50%；以当前定价为起点，不把换线时同步发生的水位跳动另算为独立方向证据。Neutral · Market consensus · Verified

Why Ferencvarosi TC +1.5

Asian handicap · Reasons, risks and what would flip it

Key evidence 4

  1. The current line is home -1.5, with Ferencvarosi +1.5 and prices of 2.02 / 1.88, giving de-vigged implied probabilities of 48% / 52%. The current pricing is used as the starting point, without treating the quoted handicap as an additional measure of Ferencvarosi's strength.Market consensus · Nov 05, 2026, 23:36
  2. The fused model gives Ferencvarosi 54%, consistent with this report. Its fusion weight is 0.1, so the model and market are not independent forms of support; the pre-fusion probability of 79% for Ferencvarosi is not used to amplify the conclusion.Quant model · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
  3. Ferencvarosi have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over their last 5 away matches, providing the substantive basis for the report's slightly higher away probability. AC Milan's last 5 home matches have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.23 expected goals conceded, limiting the extent of any further adjustment toward Ferencvarosi.Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
  4. AC Milan goalkeeper M. Maignan and defenders M. Gabbia and F. Tomori are listed as unavailable, supporting Ferencvarosi +1.5. However, Rabiot has 4 goals and 3 assists and Pulisic has 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 10 matches, so AC Milan retain scoring sources; defensive absences do not mean their attack is ineffective.Lineups · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46

Dissent 2

  • The counterview retains Ferencvarosi +1.5 but assigns the away side only 53%. The most important reservations are that AC Milan's home attacking output and expected goals conceded cannot be ignored and that Ferencvarosi's home handicap record cannot directly support an away handicap here. This report adopts those limitations and does not use the data analyst's 57% for Ferencvarosi.Red team · Strength 4/5
  • The quant analyst remains neutral, emphasizing the fusion weight of 0.1, a bias-estimation pool of 37 matches and the fact that the model has not incorporated this match's injuries or lineup. The model and market are close and should not be treated as independent support.Quant · Strength 3/5

Main risks 4

  • The official lineups and replacement defensive configurations for both teams are data缺失; a core squad list cannot be treated as the matchday starting lineup.
  • The opponents in Ferencvarosi's last 5 away matches differ from those in this match, so their average of 0.8 goals conceded cannot directly represent their defensive level against AC Milan.
  • AC Milan's actual goals conceded in their last 5 home matches exceeded expected goals conceded, and that gap may narrow; it should not be interpreted solely as a continuation of defensive problems.
  • Ferencvarosi striker F. Kovacevic is doubtful, and if unavailable, the away side's ability to draw defensive attention could decline.

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms that AC Milan's main attacking core will play and their replacement defensive configuration is complete, while Ferencvarosi striker F. Kovacevic cannot play and their main attacking core does not start, change to pass.

Red team · 7 challenges

The three strongest challenges are as follows: the data analyst's 57% for Ferencvarosi discarded the defensive regression from the same set of expected goals, then used Ferencvarosi's home handicap record to support an away handicap, while setting aside the score in their own counterevidence showing AC Milan winning by 2 goals at home; the unanimous over lean from the three analysts did not address the half-win structure for 3 goals at the 3.25 line, and 4 of Ferencvarosi's last 5 away matches had no more than 3 total goals; the market analyst treated price movements within the same line-change record as a funds signal, although the move from 1.95 to 1.81 occurred simultaneously with the line changing from -1.75 to -1.5, so the mechanical component cannot be isolated. I therefore reduced both the probability of Ferencvarosi +1.5 and the over probability below the consensus without taking the opposite side.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Asian handicap · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

费伦茨瓦罗斯近10场场均进球2.3、场均失球0.7、近5个客场1.8/0.8，加上米兰主场实际失球高于预期失球，支持主队让球半下选客队受让，给客队57%。

同一组预期进球对比被单向使用：米兰主场实际失球1.8高于预期失球1.23，按同样口径应回归到更少失球，这支持主队让球一侧，但这条推导没有被用在主队身上。其次，他用费伦茨瓦罗斯「最近两场让1.25球和让0.5球均打出」作依据，这两场分别是主场对托雷斯让1.25、主场对比尔森让0.5，角色是让球方，与本场客队受让球半相反，不能直接外推。第三，在他自己的反证里已写明米兰主场近5场出现3-1、3-0这类净胜2球及以上的比分，而这正是客队受让球半全输的情形，他没有据此下调57%，反而给出三位分析师中最高的客队概率。

Reverse scenario · 米兰在主场净胜2球及以上（如3-1、3-0一类比分），客队受让球半全输。 · Reverse scenario probability 47%

6 more challenges (Over / under · Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap · Over / under · Asian handicap)

Detailed verdict for each market

Over / under

Under 3.25

Reference opinionPass

Under

52%

Why a pass · The chief judged it not worth a bet

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +2.0 pt · 费伦茨瓦罗斯近10场场均失球0.7、客场近5场场均失球0.8，防守结果支持小球，但对手构成限制外推。
  • +1.5 pt · 米兰S. Chukwueze（MF）、R. Loftus-Cheek（MF）、A. Saelemaekers（MF）分别因Hip Injury、Thigh Injury、Ankle Injury缺阵，中场可用选择减少，对小球形成修正。
  • +1.0 pt · 3.25线上融合后模型给小球51%、大球49%，模型略偏小球，但已融合市场信息，仅作有限修正。
  • +0.5 pt · 费伦茨瓦罗斯F. Kovacevic（FW）因Injury处于伤疑状态，可能削弱客队进攻完整性，但尚未确认缺阵，仅作小幅修正。
  • -2.0 pt · 米兰M. Maignan（GK）因Red Card缺阵，M. Gabbia（DF）因Thigh Injury缺阵，F. Tomori（DF）因Muscle Injury缺阵，后场可用性下降支持大球。
  • -0.5 pt · 米兰主场近5场场均进球2.2、场均失球1.8，实际得失球产出支持大球，不能仅凭客队防守结果否定主队比赛的进球波动。
  • -0.5 pt · 费伦茨瓦罗斯E. Botka（DF）因Inactive缺阵、B. Nagy（DF）因Off the roster缺阵，客队后场选择减少，对大球提供有限支持。
  • — · 当前大小球3.25，大球水位1.96、小球1.93，去水隐含各50%；以当前定价为起点，不把换线时同步发生的水位跳动另算为独立方向证据。

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms that AC Milan's main attacking core will play and that Ferencvarosi striker F. Kovacevic and their main attacking core are available, while neither team's defensive absences are effectively covered, change to over or pass.

Edge+1.6 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 and Under 3.25 come in (full or half win; 38.8% in total), the most likely is 2-1 (9.6%)

  • 2-110%
  • 1-18%
  • 1-08%
Most likely · 2-1

Total goals

Probability

If Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 and Under 3.25 come in (full or half win; 38.8% in total), the most likely is 2–3 goals (24.2%)

  • 0–1 goals15%
  • 2–3 goals24%
  • 4+ goals0%
Most likely · 2–3 goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Analyst consensus

4 analysts: 3 agree · 1 cautious · 0 dissent

  • Data analystAgree
  • IntelligenceAgree
  • MarketAgree
  • QuantCautious
  • Red team: 7 challenges

Summary

Ferencvarosi have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game over their last 10 matches, while AC Milan have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 5 home matches. At the home side's -1.5 line, the current data supports Ferencvarosi +1.5. For over/under 3.25, AC Milan's last 5 matches include 3-1, 2-4, 0-3 and 3-2, creating a lean toward over, although missing personnel, head-to-head and referee information limits the strength of that view.

  • Asian handicapLean · Ferencvarosi TCStrength 3/5Probability 57%
    • AC Milan have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 5 home matches, with 1.57 home expected goals and 1.23 home expected goals conceded; actual goals conceded above expected goals conceded may reflect finishing or defensive-execution volatility.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • In AC Milan's last 5 matches, the -0.75 line against Bologna did not cover, while the -0.75 line against Atalanta did cover; this match's -1.5 line is deeper than both.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • Ferencvarosi have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over their last 10 matches and 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last 5 away matches; their last two matches included successful -1.25 and -0.5 handicaps.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46

    Uncertainties · 人员信息：数据缺失，无法判断阵容变化对主队深盘能力的影响。 · 历史交锋：数据缺失，本场交锋场次为0。 · 裁判信息：数据缺失。

  • Over / underLean · OverStrength 3/5Probability 54%
    • AC Milan's last 5 results were 3-1, 2-4, 2-0, 0-3 and 3-2, with 3-1, 2-4, 0-3 and 3-2 classified as overs and recent total-goal volatility high.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • Ferencvarosi have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game over their last 10 matches, with 2.25 expected goals and 1.39 expected goals conceded; their attacking chance quality supports their ability to score.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • AC Milan have averaged 2.2 goals scored per home match, above their home expected goals of 1.57, and 1.8 goals conceded, above their home expected goals conceded of 1.23; actual results have diverged from chance quality, potentially reflecting finishing efficiency and defensive-execution volatility.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • AC Milan scored 55% of their first-half goals over their last 10 matches, compared with Ferencvarosi's 39%. Both have scored in first halves, but match-by-match scoring-time data is incomplete.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46

    Uncertainties · 人员信息：数据缺失，无法判断进攻与防守阵容是否改变。 · 逐场进球时段：数据缺失，目前只有上半场进球占比。 · 历史交锋：数据缺失，本场交锋场次为0。

  • Correct scoreLean · 2-1Strength 1/5
    • AC Milan have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 home matches, while Ferencvarosi have averaged 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last 5 away matches; 2-1 lies in the middle range of the teams' home and away scoring and conceding figures.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • Ferencvarosi's last 5 away results include 2-1, and AC Milan have also recently recorded several one-goal or two-goal margins, supporting 2-1 as a low-strength distribution center.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46

    Uncertainties · 正确比分的量化分布：数据缺失。 · 人员信息：数据缺失。 · 历史交锋：数据缺失，本场交锋场次为0。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 2/5
    • AC Milan have averaged 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last 10 matches, while Ferencvarosi have averaged 2.3 scored and 0.7 conceded, with both teams' recent attacking data supporting a median goal band.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • AC Milan's last 5 results include 3-1, 2-4, 2-0, 0-3 and 3-2; Ferencvarosi's last 5 away results include 3-1, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1, providing examples from low through high-scoring bands.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46
    • AC Milan's home expected goals are 1.57 and expected goals conceded 1.23, while Ferencvarosi's last-10-match expected goals are 2.25 and expected goals conceded 1.39; the overall chance quality supports a distribution center around 2-3 goals.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 23:46

    Uncertainties · 进球档的量化分布：数据缺失。 · 逐场进球时段：数据缺失，目前只有上半场进球占比。 · 人员信息：数据缺失。

Analysis versions (7)
  1. Version 8Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:30View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line -1.5 → -1.25
    • Asian handicap: Probability 54% → 55%
    • Over / under: Line 3.25 → 3
    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Correct score: Pick 2-1 → 1-1
    • Total goals: Pick 2-3 → 0-1
    • Total goals: Probability 24% → 17%
  2. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:01Current

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 52%
  3. Version 5Price updateNov 05, 2026, 23:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 16:55View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Probability 55% → 54%
    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 53% → 54%
    • Correct score: Pick 2-2 → 2-1
    • Correct score: Probability 4% → 10%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 12% → 24%
  5. Version 3Price updateNov 05, 2026, 13:36View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Tier Pass → Lean
  6. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 02:43View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Asian handicap: Probability 52% → 55%
  7. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 02:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 2 · Nov 05, 2026, 02:43 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Pass 55%
  2. First published · Version 3 · Nov 05, 2026, 13:36 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 55%
  3. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 05, 2026, 13:36 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Pass 55%Reason: tier changed
  4. Kept · Version 4 · Nov 05, 2026, 16:55 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 54%
  5. Kept · Version 5 · Nov 05, 2026, 23:36 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 54%
  6. Kept · Version 6 · Nov 06, 2026, 00:01 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 54%
  7. Changed · Version 8 · Nov 06, 2026, 01:30 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.25 Lean 55%Reason: line changed

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 5 · Nov 05, 2026, 23:36 · Under 3.25 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionKept · Version 6 · Nov 06, 2026, 00:01 · Under 3.25 Pass 52%
  3. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 8 · Nov 06, 2026, 01:30 · Under 3.25 Pass 52%
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