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AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Free todayFinished
Milan
0:2Fri, Nov 06 01:45San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Ferencvarosi TC
FreeVersion 2 · Odds move rerun · Nov 05, 2026, 02:43Data completeness 78%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 4 analysts

No recommended side for this match, but 1 reference opinion: the chief and the model agree, on the favourite side, with a gap of at least 1 point, yet short of the recommendation bar. Not a pick; for reference only.

Why a pass

  • Asian handicap: Change since the previous version did not clear the tier threshold
  • Over / under: The chief judged it not worth a bet

Watch out for

  • AC Milan have scored 2.2 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, so their home attack could still overwhelm the visitor's low goals-against record.
  • Ferencvarosi TC have conceded 0.8 goals per game over their last 5 away matches, which conflicts with the evidence supporting over from Milan's defensive absences; the key evidence has not produced a consistent judgment.
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Market verdicts

  • Asian handicapFerencvarosi TC +1.555%PassLine moved
  • Over / underOver 353%Pass
  • Correct score2-24%
  • Total goals4+ goals12%
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap continues to favor Ferencvarosi TC receiving a 1.5-goal handicap, based on Milan’s defensive absences and the visitor’s low away goals-against record. The over/under retains an over direction, but defensive and midfield absences on one side and the visitor’s low goals-against record pull in opposite directions, so the view remains a pass.

Weighting notes · Use the current de-vigged market probabilities as the starting point and apply approximate percentage-point adjustments from the factor ledger, avoiding double-counting a market-fused model as independent evidence. Re-estimate the fair probability after the visitor’s price moved higher on the Asian handicap, but leave the direction and strength unchanged; recollected team statistics are not treated as a content change. The data analyst has a weight of 1; the claim that all away matches were covered is contradicted by the handicap records and is not adopted. The intel analyst has a weight of 0.85; structured absence facts are retained while adding the visitor’s own absences. The market analyst has a weight of 0.9 and only verifiable prices are used, with no inference about money flow. The quant analyst has a weight of 1; the neutral stance is retained as stated rather than presented as directional support. The red team’s 53% for the visitor and 52% for over limit upward adjustments, although Milan’s defensive absences still support a slightly higher estimate. The over/under retains the previous pass because the key evidence points in opposite directions, not because the gap is small.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 · Pass

  • +2.5 pt米兰缺阵名单包括M. Maignan（GK，Red Card）、M. Gabbia（DF，Thigh Injury）及F. Tomori（DF，Muscle Injury），后场人员减损削弱拉开差距的条件。Ferencvarosi TC · Lineups · Verified
  • +2.0 pt融合模型给客队受让球半54%，模型所列市场隐含为52%；融合权重为0.1，只计融合后的支持，不另行累加原模型79%的判断。Ferencvarosi TC · Quant model · Verified
  • +1.5 pt费伦茨瓦罗斯近5个客场场均失球0.8，对客队受让形成支持；样本对手不同，不将这一失球水平直接外推到本场。Ferencvarosi TC · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt客队E. Botka（DF，Inactive）、B. Nagy（DF，Off the roster）、G. Szecsi（GK，Off the roster）缺阵，F. Kovacevic（FW，Injury）存疑，抵消部分客队人员优势。Milan · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.5 pt米兰近5个主场场均进球2.2、场均预期进球1.57，主场进攻能力支持主队让球方向，也是限制客队概率上修的主要依据。Milan · Match data · Verified
  • —已接入赛程显示客队上一场相隔14天，米兰上一场相隔5天、下一场相隔3天；休整时间差不直接等同于比赛状态优势。Neutral · Match data · Verified
  • —双方均有尚未确定的晋级目标，米兰3分、费伦茨瓦罗斯9分，没有单方无所求的需求差异，不用积分形势抬高任一侧概率。Neutral · Match data · Verified
  • —米兰再次轮换的报道只有1家出版方，尚不能作为实际轮休的证据。Neutral · News · Unverified

Over / under · Over 3 · Pass

  • +2.5 pt米兰M. Maignan（GK，Red Card）、M. Gabbia（DF，Thigh Injury）及F. Tomori（DF，Muscle Injury）缺阵，后场多个位置减员支持大球。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.5 pt客队E. Botka（DF，Inactive）、B. Nagy（DF，Off the roster）及G. Szecsi（GK，Off the roster）缺阵，客队防守位置也有人员减损。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.5 pt米兰近5个主场场均进球2.2、场均失球1.8，实际攻防产出支持大球，但不将失球高于机会质量当作可持续趋势。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.5 pt客队近5个客场场均失球0.8、近10场场均失球0.7，是支持小球的直接反向证据。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -1.3 pt米兰S. Chukwueze（MF，Hip Injury）、R. Loftus-Cheek（MF，Thigh Injury）及A. Saelemaekers（MF，Ankle Injury）缺阵，中场可用人员减少，对大球构成反向影响。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.0 pt融合模型给大球50%、小球50%，模型所列市场隐含大球51%；模型没有提供大球价格优势，作为小球方向的轻微修正。Under · Quant model · Verified
  • -0.8 pt客队F. Kovacevic（FW，Injury）处于存疑状态，前场可用人员的不确定性限制大球判断。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • —双方首发均为预计状态，尚不能确认后场替代人员及中场配置，人员减损对进球的相反作用暂不能充分区分。Neutral · Lineups · Verified

Red team · 6 challenges

The three strongest challenges are as follows. First, the data analyst's 61% for the visitor is based on an overstated claim: only 2 of the visitor's 5 matches had handicap prices, so saying all were covered also counts matches without a handicap, and in those 2 matches Ferencvarosi TC were giving the handicap rather than receiving 1.5 goals. The statistics window also includes July qualifiers, with only 5 of 10 matches carrying the required data. Second, the intel analyst's 56% for the visitor counts only the home side's absences; the same list also shows the visitor missing a goalkeeper and two defenders, with one forward doubtful, so whether the handicap can be covered also depends on the visitor's defense, meaning the case was presented one-sidedly. Third, the quant analyst's 54% and 2-percentage-point edge mainly come from the model's 10% component: an original model figure of 79% falls to 54% after fusion, showing sensitivity to parameters, although the direction is labeled neutral. The same limited basis applies to over and 4+ goals: the de-vigged market implies 51% for over, and Ferencvarosi TC have conceded 0.7 goals per game over their last 10 matches.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Asian handicap · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

让球盘倾向客队受让球半，概率 61%（客队一侧）

这条 61% 的第一条依据把一个站不住的说法放大了：客队近5场比分是 4-1、2-1、3-1、4-0、1-0，但其中只有对托雷斯（客队让 1.25）和对比尔森（客队让 0.5）两场有让球盘口记录，另外三场没有盘口，说「对应让球结果均为覆盖」把没有盘口的场次也算成了覆盖；而且这两场客队是让出方，本场是受让球半，覆盖记录不能直接搬到受让位置。其次，用客队近10场场均进球 2.3、场均失球 0.7 支撑客队，但这一统计窗口从 7 月 16 日开始，包含特拉布宗、扎布热矿工、特温特、伏伊伏丁那等资格赛对手，10 场里只有 5 场有统计，说服力有限。他自己列出的反向证据里有 3-1、3-0 这类主队净胜两球及以上的主场比分，正是让球半最需要的差距。市场去水隐含客队 52%，61% 高出市场的幅度没有给出量化理由，强度 3 撑不起这个偏离。

Reverse scenario · 米兰在主场净胜两球及以上，主队让球半全赢，客队受让全输 · Reverse scenario probability 45%

5 more challenges (Asian handicap · Over / under · Total goals · Asian handicap · Asian handicap)

Detailed verdict for each market

Asian handicap

Ferencvarosi TC +1.5

Reference opinionPass

Ferencvarosi TC

55%

Why a pass · Change since the previous version did not clear the tier threshold

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +2.5 pt · 米兰缺阵名单包括M. Maignan（GK，Red Card）、M. Gabbia（DF，Thigh Injury）及F. Tomori（DF，Muscle Injury），后场人员减损削弱拉开差距的条件。
  • +2.0 pt · 融合模型给客队受让球半54%，模型所列市场隐含为52%；融合权重为0.1，只计融合后的支持，不另行累加原模型79%的判断。
  • +1.5 pt · 费伦茨瓦罗斯近5个客场场均失球0.8，对客队受让形成支持；样本对手不同，不将这一失球水平直接外推到本场。
  • -1.5 pt · 客队E. Botka（DF，Inactive）、B. Nagy（DF，Off the roster）、G. Szecsi（GK，Off the roster）缺阵，F. Kovacevic（FW，Injury）存疑，抵消部分客队人员优势。
  • -1.5 pt · 米兰近5个主场场均进球2.2、场均预期进球1.57，主场进攻能力支持主队让球方向，也是限制客队概率上修的主要依据。
  • — · 已接入赛程显示客队上一场相隔14天，米兰上一场相隔5天、下一场相隔3天；休整时间差不直接等同于比赛状态优势。
  • — · 双方均有尚未确定的晋级目标，米兰3分、费伦茨瓦罗斯9分，没有单方无所求的需求差异，不用积分形势抬高任一侧概率。
  • — · 米兰再次轮换的报道只有1家出版方，尚不能作为实际轮休的证据。

Flip condition

If the official lineup or disciplinary confirmation overturns the main evidence that Milan's goalkeeper and defenders are absent while the visitor continues to lose defensive personnel, change to pass.

Edge+3.3 pt

Over / under

Over 3

Pass

Over

53%

Why a pass · The chief judged it not worth a bet

Flip condition

If the official lineup confirms that Milan's defensive absences have been eased while the midfield absences continue and F. Kovacevic is confirmed absent for the visitor, change to under or pass.

Edge+2.3 pt

Correct score

Probability

If Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 and Over 3 come in (full or half win; 12.4% in total), the most likely is 2-2 (4.2%)

  • 2-24%
  • 3-23%
  • 2-31%
Most likely · 2-2

Total goals

Probability

If Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 and Over 3 come in (full or half win; 12.4% in total), the most likely is 4+ goals (12.4%)

  • 0–1 goals0%
  • 2–3 goals0%
  • 4+ goals12%
Most likely · 4+ goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Summary

AC Milan have scored 2.2 and conceded 1.8 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, while Ferencvarosi TC have scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 per game over their last 5 away matches; Ferencvarosi TC have scored 2.3 and conceded 0.7 per game over their last 10 matches, showing more stable recent results. Based on these data, the 1.5-goal handicap leans toward the visitor, while over/under 3 leans slightly toward over, but confidence in the scoreline and goals bands is lower.

  • Asian handicapLean · Ferencvarosi TCStrength 3/5Probability 61%
    • The visitor's last 5 scorelines were 4-1, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0 and 1-0, all covering the handicap, indicating recent resilience when receiving it.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • Ferencvarosi TC have scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 goals per game over their last 5 away matches. Milan need to open a two-goal margin at -1.5, so the visitor's away defensive data supports the handicap direction.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • Ferencvarosi TC have scored 2.3 and conceded 0.7 goals per game over their last 10 matches, while AC Milan have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.5, with the visitor showing good recent results in both attack and defense.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46

    Uncertainties · 双方历史交锋为空，无法用交锋记录校准本场让球半的差距；来源 stats:fixtures，抓取时间 2026-11-04T17:46:24.436Z。 · 人员信息缺失，无法判断阵容变化对深盘差距的影响。

  • Over / underLean · OverStrength 2/5Probability 55%
    • The home side's last 5 scorelines include 3-1, 2-4, 2-0, 0-3 and 3-2, while the visitor's last 5 include 4-1, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0 and 1-0, with multiple high-scoring matches for both teams recently.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • The home side have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.5 goals per game over their last 10 matches; the visitor have scored 2.3 and conceded 0.7, with neither team's recent attacking output low.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • The home side have produced 1.81 expected goals and 1.41 expected goals conceded per game over their last 10 matches, while the visitor have produced 2.25 and conceded 1.39, with chance-quality data supporting more attacking exchanges in the match.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • The home side have conceded 1.23 expected goals per game at home while actually conceding 1.8, so actual goals conceded have exceeded chance quality, potentially reflecting finishing, defensive execution or goalkeeper performance; the input provides no error or personnel data to determine the specific cause.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46

    Uncertainties · 详细进球时段、射门质量变化和比赛节奏数据缺失，无法进一步判断大球方向的时段稳定性。 · 裁判信息缺失，无法评估判罚因素对比赛节奏和定位球数量的影响。

  • Correct scoreLean · 1-2Strength 1/5
    • AC Milan have scored 2.2 and conceded 1.8 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, while Ferencvarosi TC have scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 over their last 5 away matches; Milan have a goals-scoring foundation, but the visitor's recent defensive results are stronger.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • AC Milan have produced 1.81 expected goals and Ferencvarosi TC 2.25 over their last 10 matches. Combined with Milan's home goals-against and the visitor's away goals-against figures, a low-scoring away win is one candidate center of the scoreline distribution.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46

    Uncertainties · 输入没有提供正确比分概率分布，且历史交锋为空，因此比分结果仅有较低确定性。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 1/5
    • The home side's last 5 scorelines include 3-1, 2-4, 2-0, 0-3 and 3-2, while the visitor's last 5 include 4-1, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0 and 1-0, covering both low- and high-scoring outcomes recently.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46
    • The home side have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.5 goals per game over their last 10 matches, and the visitor 2.3 and 0.7. Combined with the visitor's 0.8 away goals conceded per game, the 2-to-3-goal range relatively fits the balance of both teams' attacking and defensive data.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 01:46

    Uncertainties · 没有提供总进球区间的直接概率分布，且双方历史交锋为空；来源 stats:fixtures，抓取时间 2026-11-04T17:46:24.436Z。

Analysis versions (7)
  1. Version 8Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:30View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line -1.5 → -1.25
    • Asian handicap: Probability 54% → 55%
    • Over / under: Line 3.25 → 3
    • Over / under: Probability 52% → 50%
    • Correct score: Pick 2-1 → 1-1
    • Total goals: Pick 2-3 → 0-1
    • Total goals: Probability 24% → 17%
  2. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:01View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Over / under: Probability 54% → 52%
  3. Version 5Price updateNov 05, 2026, 23:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 16:55View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Probability 55% → 54%
    • Over / under: Pick Over → Under
    • Over / under: Line 3 → 3.25
    • Over / under: Probability 53% → 54%
    • Correct score: Pick 2-2 → 2-1
    • Correct score: Probability 4% → 10%
    • Total goals: Pick 4+ → 2-3
    • Total goals: Probability 12% → 24%
  5. Version 3Price updateNov 05, 2026, 13:36View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Tier Pass → Lean
  6. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 02:43Current

    Direction unchanged

    • Asian handicap: Probability 52% → 55%
  7. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 02:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Asian handicap

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 2 · Nov 05, 2026, 02:43 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Pass 55%
  2. First published · Version 3 · Nov 05, 2026, 13:36 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 55%
  3. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 05, 2026, 13:36 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Pass 55%Reason: tier changed
  4. Kept · Version 4 · Nov 05, 2026, 16:55 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 54%
  5. Kept · Version 5 · Nov 05, 2026, 23:36 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 54%
  6. Kept · Version 6 · Nov 06, 2026, 00:01 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.5 Lean 54%
  7. Changed · Version 8 · Nov 06, 2026, 01:30 · Ferencvarosi TC +1.25 Lean 55%Reason: line changed

Over / under

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 5 · Nov 05, 2026, 23:36 · Under 3.25 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionKept · Version 6 · Nov 06, 2026, 00:01 · Under 3.25 Pass 52%
  3. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 8 · Nov 06, 2026, 01:30 · Under 3.25 Pass 52%
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