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NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
NEC Nijmegen
3:1Fri, Nov 06 01:45Stadion de Goffert
Omonia Nicosia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:28
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:28

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

NEC Nijmegen's last 5 home matches have all been draws. Its home average of 1.89 expected goals indicates chance creation, but Omonia Nicosia currently concedes only 0.75 goals per game away, so there is no side selection on the home team's +0.75 handicap. NEC Nijmegen has averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded at home and has repeatedly recorded 2-2 draws, giving the 3-goal line a slight tilt toward the over. However, Omonia Nicosia's low away goals-conceded record and missing data limit the strength of that assessment.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:28Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 23:58View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 21:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 01:55View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

3 - 190 minutes 3-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapOmonia Nicosia +0.75Loss
Over / underOver 3Win
Correct score2-2Miss
Total goals4+Hit

Review

Final score 3-1. Asian handicap Omonia Nicosia +0.75 → loss; over/under Over 3 → win; correct score 2-2 → miss; total goals 4+ → hit.

Nov 06, 2026, 03:51