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NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
NEC Nijmegen
3:1Fri, Nov 06 01:45Stadion de Goffert
Omonia Nicosia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 23:58
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 23:58

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

NEC Nijmegen's last five home matches were all draws, with 1.89 expected goals per game at home showing chance creation, but Omonia Nicosia's existing away matches average only 0.75 goals conceded, so the home side's 0.75 handicap is not yet a side to take. The home side averages 1.6 goals scored and conceded and has recently produced several 2-2 results, which tilts the 3-goal line slightly toward the over, but the away side's low away concession and missing data limit the strength of the call.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:28View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 23:58Current

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 21:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 01:55View this version

    Direction unchanged